Russia has embarked upon a difficult process of systemic transformation and economic opening up. While the initial strong GDP decline seemed to have ended in 1997, the real development was facing even more difficult problems as output declined sharply after the Ruble and banking crisis of August 1998: inflation started to increase again, exports and imports were falling, capital flight increasing and unemployment rising. There is broad disappointment in Russia regarding the transformation failure in 1998 since so many people had hoped that the end of the Soviet command economy would bring…mehr
Russia has embarked upon a difficult process of systemic transformation and economic opening up. While the initial strong GDP decline seemed to have ended in 1997, the real development was facing even more difficult problems as output declined sharply after the Ruble and banking crisis of August 1998: inflation started to increase again, exports and imports were falling, capital flight increasing and unemployment rising. There is broad disappointment in Russia regarding the transformation failure in 1998 since so many people had hoped that the end of the Soviet command economy would bring democracy, prosperity and international integration. While Poland has been able to double per capita income in the 1990s it has fallen by 50% in Russia and this despite considerable IMF involvement and some (modest) support from other international organizations. What were the reasons for transformation failure in the 1990s? What are the ingredients for long term sustainable transformation? Whatare the internal and international requirements to avoid a second - possibly tragic - failure of transformation in Russia? An international group of researchers has focussed on these problems during a two-year research project financed by the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation. A series of papers were presented at workshops in Potsdam, Bonn and Moscow in 1999 where this book is devoted to four important issues: the Russian transformation crisis, the topic of restructuring, the need for stabilizing Russia and the requirements for modernizing Russia.
Paul J. J. Welfens, geb. 1957 in Düren, Studium der Volkswirtschaftslehre in Wuppertal, Duisburg und Paris, Promotion 1985, Habilitation1989. Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Volkswirtschaftslehre - Schwerpunkt Makroökonomische Theorie und Politik an der Bergischen Universität Wuppertal; Präsident des Europäischen Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW); Jean-Monnet-Professor für Europäische Wirtschaftsintegration; zuvor Distinguished Research Fellow am AICGS/The Johns Hopkins University, Professor an der Universität Münster bzw. Potsdam, Visiting Alfred Grosser Professor Sciences Po, Paris.
Inhaltsangabe
P.J.J. Welfens, Y. Gavrilenkov: Introduction.- The Russian Transformation Crisis: P.J.J. Welfens: Efficient External Liberalization in Russian Transformation.- Introduction.- Traditional and New Approaches for External Liberalization.- Policy Conclusions for Russia.- T. Komulainen: Currency Crisis Theories - Some Expanations for the Russian Case.- Introduction.- Currency Crisis Theories.- Conclusion.- R. Wiegert: Banking Sector and Financial Intermediation in the Russian Transformation Process.- Systemic Transformation, Growth Requirements and Financial Stability.- The Role of the Banking Sector.- Consequences for the Russian Banking Sector.- R. Grinberg: Institutional Failures of Market Transformation of the Russian Economy.- Introduction.- Examples of Institutional Failures in the Reform Policy in Russia.- The West in the Trap of Self-deception.- Russia Between Old and New Institutions.- The Reform of Institutional Basis of Economic Policy in Russia.- V. Gligorov, N. Sundstrom: Russian Crisis: Causes, Developments, Contagion and Prospects.- Introduction.- Constitution and Transformation.- Budgets, Markets and Banks.- Policy Responses and Mistakes.- The Collapse and Contagion.- Russian Prospects.- Conclusion.- Restructuring in Transition Economies: R. Döhrn: Foreign Direct Investment in Russia: An Engine of Structural Adjustment?.- Statistical Background.- Determinants of FDI and Projections for Russia.- FDI, Capital Formation, and Structural Change.- Conclusions.- G. Serebryakov: Russian Economy: Structural Change and Econometric Prospective.- Aggregate Econometric Macro Model for Russian Economy.- RIM - Russian Inter-industry Model.- Modeling and Some Specific Features of Russian Economy.- Economic Growth and Structural Change in 1990 - 1997.- Issues on Laborand Capital Costs Analysis.- Some Issues in Current Economic Development and Perspective Model Simulations.- Z. Ludvig: Economic Opening-Up, Policy Reforms and Relations with International Organizations: A Parallel between Hungary and Russia - Some Major Differences and Similarities.- Economic Opening-up and the Role of Foreign Trade Liberalization.- Relationship with International Organizations.- Stabilizing Russia: E. Gavrilenkov: Introduction.- The Impact of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Performance in Present Russia and Some Political Economy Issues.- The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Russia in the Context of International Experience and Conducting of Monetary Policy with Different Regimes.- Monetary Policy, Liquidiy Problems and Foreign Debt Service.- M. Vogelsang: Russian Capital Markets and International Financial Flows.- Introduction.- Some Questions on Recent Financial Crises.- The Model.- Capital Markets and Economy`s Wealth.- Exit Tax.- Some Remarks on Tax and Other Capital Controls.- Conclusion.- C. Faber, H. Strohe: Consumer Prices in Russia and Transforming Official Statistics.- Preface.- Some Short Methodological Notes Concerning the Russian CPI.- The Development of Russian CPI within the 90s.- A Comparison of CPI Development with other Economic Indicators.- Problems Concerning the Statistics of Consumer Prices.- Recommendations.- F. Bohn: The Rationale for Seigniorage in Russia - A Model-Theoretic Approach.- Introduction.- Economic and Political Model Components.- A Formal Intertemporal Model.- Conclusion and Outlook.- U. Thießen: Overcoming the Russian Banking Crisis: Theory, Some Empirical Findings and Policy Options.- Introduction.- Background of the Banking Crisis, Economic Costs, and Approach of the Authorities.- Modern Theoretical Findings of the Workings of Financial Markets and
P.J.J. Welfens, Y. Gavrilenkov: Introduction.- The Russian Transformation Crisis: P.J.J. Welfens: Efficient External Liberalization in Russian Transformation.- Introduction.- Traditional and New Approaches for External Liberalization.- Policy Conclusions for Russia.- T. Komulainen: Currency Crisis Theories - Some Expanations for the Russian Case.- Introduction.- Currency Crisis Theories.- Conclusion.- R. Wiegert: Banking Sector and Financial Intermediation in the Russian Transformation Process.- Systemic Transformation, Growth Requirements and Financial Stability.- The Role of the Banking Sector.- Consequences for the Russian Banking Sector.- R. Grinberg: Institutional Failures of Market Transformation of the Russian Economy.- Introduction.- Examples of Institutional Failures in the Reform Policy in Russia.- The West in the Trap of Self-deception.- Russia Between Old and New Institutions.- The Reform of Institutional Basis of Economic Policy in Russia.- V. Gligorov, N. Sundstrom: Russian Crisis: Causes, Developments, Contagion and Prospects.- Introduction.- Constitution and Transformation.- Budgets, Markets and Banks.- Policy Responses and Mistakes.- The Collapse and Contagion.- Russian Prospects.- Conclusion.- Restructuring in Transition Economies: R. Döhrn: Foreign Direct Investment in Russia: An Engine of Structural Adjustment?.- Statistical Background.- Determinants of FDI and Projections for Russia.- FDI, Capital Formation, and Structural Change.- Conclusions.- G. Serebryakov: Russian Economy: Structural Change and Econometric Prospective.- Aggregate Econometric Macro Model for Russian Economy.- RIM - Russian Inter-industry Model.- Modeling and Some Specific Features of Russian Economy.- Economic Growth and Structural Change in 1990 - 1997.- Issues on Laborand Capital Costs Analysis.- Some Issues in Current Economic Development and Perspective Model Simulations.- Z. Ludvig: Economic Opening-Up, Policy Reforms and Relations with International Organizations: A Parallel between Hungary and Russia - Some Major Differences and Similarities.- Economic Opening-up and the Role of Foreign Trade Liberalization.- Relationship with International Organizations.- Stabilizing Russia: E. Gavrilenkov: Introduction.- The Impact of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Performance in Present Russia and Some Political Economy Issues.- The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Russia in the Context of International Experience and Conducting of Monetary Policy with Different Regimes.- Monetary Policy, Liquidiy Problems and Foreign Debt Service.- M. Vogelsang: Russian Capital Markets and International Financial Flows.- Introduction.- Some Questions on Recent Financial Crises.- The Model.- Capital Markets and Economy`s Wealth.- Exit Tax.- Some Remarks on Tax and Other Capital Controls.- Conclusion.- C. Faber, H. Strohe: Consumer Prices in Russia and Transforming Official Statistics.- Preface.- Some Short Methodological Notes Concerning the Russian CPI.- The Development of Russian CPI within the 90s.- A Comparison of CPI Development with other Economic Indicators.- Problems Concerning the Statistics of Consumer Prices.- Recommendations.- F. Bohn: The Rationale for Seigniorage in Russia - A Model-Theoretic Approach.- Introduction.- Economic and Political Model Components.- A Formal Intertemporal Model.- Conclusion and Outlook.- U. Thießen: Overcoming the Russian Banking Crisis: Theory, Some Empirical Findings and Policy Options.- Introduction.- Background of the Banking Crisis, Economic Costs, and Approach of the Authorities.- Modern Theoretical Findings of the Workings of Financial Markets and
Rezensionen
"...will become an authoritative reading because it constitutes an insightful background for the understanding of Russian economic performance during the last decade. An invaluable reference work for researchers." Bruno S. Sergi, University of Messina and CERC-University of Melbourne from Kyklos 54 (2001)
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