Gregory C. Chow
China's Economic Transformation 3e
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China's Economic Transformation 3e
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Now available in a fully-revised and updated third edition, this established textbook provides a penetrating and comprehensive analysis of the historical, institutional, and theoretical factors that have contributed to China's economic success.
Includes coverage of China's foreign investments, trade with regional partners, Chinese human capital, and bureaucratic economic institutions Covers a diverse set of important issues, including environmental restraints, income distribution, rural poverty, the education system, healthcare, exchange rate policies, monetary policies, and financial…mehr
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Now available in a fully-revised and updated third edition, this established textbook provides a penetrating and comprehensive analysis of the historical, institutional, and theoretical factors that have contributed to China's economic success.
Includes coverage of China's foreign investments, trade with regional partners, Chinese human capital, and bureaucratic economic institutions
Covers a diverse set of important issues, including environmental restraints, income distribution, rural poverty, the education system, healthcare, exchange rate policies, monetary policies, and financial regulation
Accessibly written and intelligently organized to offer a straightforward guide to China's economic evolution
Written by a lauded economist, researcher, and advisor to government officials in mainland China and Taiwan
Includes coverage of China's foreign investments, trade with regional partners, Chinese human capital, and bureaucratic economic institutions
Covers a diverse set of important issues, including environmental restraints, income distribution, rural poverty, the education system, healthcare, exchange rate policies, monetary policies, and financial regulation
Accessibly written and intelligently organized to offer a straightforward guide to China's economic evolution
Written by a lauded economist, researcher, and advisor to government officials in mainland China and Taiwan
Produktdetails
- Produktdetails
- Verlag: Wiley & Sons
- 3. Aufl.
- Seitenzahl: 458
- Erscheinungstermin: 7. März 2018
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 235mm x 191mm x 25mm
- Gewicht: 849g
- ISBN-13: 9781118909959
- ISBN-10: 111890995X
- Artikelnr.: 41629312
- Verlag: Wiley & Sons
- 3. Aufl.
- Seitenzahl: 458
- Erscheinungstermin: 7. März 2018
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 235mm x 191mm x 25mm
- Gewicht: 849g
- ISBN-13: 9781118909959
- ISBN-10: 111890995X
- Artikelnr.: 41629312
Gregory Chow is Professor of Economics and Class of 1913 Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus, at Princeton University. Author of 16 books and over 250 journal articles, he is a Fellow of The Econometric Society and the American Statistical Association. He has advised top government officials in mainland China and Taiwan, and in May 2001 the Econometric Research Program at Princeton was named in his honor.
Preface to the Third Edition xii Part I: Historical Background and General
Survey 1 1 Economic Lessons from History 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2
Significant Events in Major Historical Dynasties 4 1.3 The Republic of
China, 1911- 10 1.4 Summary of Historical Lessons 15 1.5 What History Can
Reveal about the Chinese Economy 16 References and Further Reading 17
Questions 18 2 Experiments with Planning and Economic Disruptions 20 2.1
The Communist Party Rises to Power 20 2.2 Historical Review: 1949-78 22 2.3
A Model of the Chinese Planned Economy 25 2.4 The Behavior of Economic
Units in a Planned Economy 29 2.5 Output Planning in Theory and Practice 32
2.6 Organization and Administration of Economic Planning 37 References and
Further Reading 40 Questions 41 3 Economic Reform up to the Mid-1990s 43
3.1 Why Economic Reform Started in 1978 43 3.2 Agriculture 45 3.3 Reform of
State-Owned Enterprises 46 3.4 Price Reform 48 3.5 The Banking System 49
3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment 50 3.7 The Nonstate Sectors 51 3.8
Institutional Infrastructure 52 3.9 Reform Policies Similar to Those of
Taiwan 53 3.10 Reasons for the Success of China's Economic Reform 56 3.11
Summary 60 Appendix: China's Geography 61 References and Further Reading 63
Questions 63 4 Further Reform up to the 2010s 65 4.1 Introduction 65 4.2
Enterprise Reform 66 4.3 Banking Reform 68 4.4 Foreign Trade and Investment
during the Asian Financial Crisis 72 4.5 The Impact of WTO Membership 74
4.6 Reform in Agriculture 81 4.7 Rural Poverty 82 4.8 Prospects for Reform
85 References and Further Reading 87 Questions 88 Part II: Analysis of the
Macroeconomy 89 5 Economic Growth 91 5.1 The Neoclassical Model of Economic
Growth 91 5.2 Data on Output, Capital, and Labor 93 5.3 A Review of
Regression Analysis 98 5.4 Estimating Production Functions for China 99 5.5
Use of the Neoclassical Growth Model to Forecast GDP 104 5.6 How Large Will
the Chinese Economy Be in 2020? 107 5.7 Lessons from Forecasting 108
References and Further Reading 108 Questions 109 6 Economic Fluctuations
110 6.1 The Multiplier-Accelerator Model of Economic Fluctuations 110 6.2
Dynamic Properties of the Multiplier-Accelerator Model 113 6.3 An
Econometric Method for Estimating Parameters of Linear Stochastic Equations
115 6.4 Estimating a Multiplier-Accelerator Model of the Chinese Economy
116 6.5 A Vector Autoregression (VAR) System 120 6.6 Econometric Models of
the Chinese Economy 122 References and Further Reading 122 Questions 123 7
Macroeconomic Policies 125 7.1 Introduction 125 7.2 Monetary Policy 127 7.3
An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and of Monetary Policy in China 134
7.4 Basic Facts about Government Revenue and Expenditure 136 7.5 Fiscal
Policy 139 References and Further Reading 140 Questions 141 8 The Effects
of Political Movements on the Macroeconomy 142 8.1 Specification of a
Dynamic Optimization Model of the Chinese Economy 142 8.2 The Solution of
the Dynamic Optimization Problem 145 8.3 Statistical Estimation 149 8.4
Measuring the Effects of Two Political Events 150 8.5 Conclusions 156
References and Further Reading 157 Questions 157 Part III: Topics in
Economic Development 159 9 Consumption 161 9.1 Trends in Per Capita
Consumption 161 9.2 Household Expenditure Patterns 165 9.3 Rural Per Capita
Consumption Expenditures in 1998 by Province 171 9.4 Consumption of Housing
in Rural and Urban Areas 173 9.5 Demand and Supply of Urban Housing 175
References and Further Reading 176 Questions 176 10 Energy and
Environmental Problems and Policies 178 10.1 Introduction 178 10.2
Environmental Problems in China 179 10.3 Laws, Agencies, and Policies for
Protecting the Environment 181 10.4 Problems of Policy Implementation and
Law Enforcement 185 10.5 A Study of Industrial Pollution 187 10.6
Regulation of China's Industrial Air Pollution 189 10.7 Conclusions 191
References and Further Reading 192 Questions 193 11 Population 194 11.1 The
Role of Population and Human Capital in Economic Development 194 11.2 The
Chinese Population and Its Rate of Growth 196 11.3 Population Policy 199
11.4 Evaluation of China's Population Policy 203 11.5 Economic Explanation
of the Birth Rate 205 11.6 Why the Population Control Policy Should Be
Terminated 207 References and Further Reading 207 Questions 208 12 Human
Capital 209 12.1 The Importance of Human Capital and Its Measurement 209
12.2 Labor Supply and Demand 210 12.3 Investment in Human Capital 216 12.4
Measuring the Rates of Return to Schooling in China 222 12.5 Health
Services 224 12.6 The Social Welfare System 228 References and Further
Reading 229 Questions 230 Part IV: Analysis of Individual Sectors 231 13
The Banking and Financial System 233 13.1 Commercial Banks 233 13.2 The
People's Bank 235 13.3 Factors Affecting the Functioning of the Banking
System 237 13.4 Possible Weaknesses of the System 240 13.5 Possible
Directions of Reform 241 13.6 Weakness of Commercial Banks and Related
Problems 243 13.7 Other Financial Institutions 244 13.8 The Role of the
Chinese Government in Reforming the Financial System 249 References and
Further Reading 251 Questions 251 14 Shanghai Stock Price Determination 253
14.1 Introduction 253 14.2 A Model of Stock Price Determination 254 14.3
Empirical Findings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange 257 14.4 Comparison
with Findings for Hong Kong and New York Stocks 262 14.5 Concluding
Comments 262 References and Further Reading 263 Questions 264 15 The
Behavior of State Enterprises 265 15.1 Organization of a State Enterprise
under Central Planning 265 15.2 Planning and Operations of a Large-Scale
State Enterprise 269 15.3 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise under
Central Planning 274 15.4 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise after
Initial Reform 277 15.5 State Enterprise Restructuring in the Late 1990s
and Its Effects on Enterprise Behavior 280 15.6 Current State of Chinese
State Enterprises 283 References and Further Reading 284 Questions 285 16
The Nonstate Sectors 286 16.1 Relative Growth of Nonstate Sectors 286 16.2
Private Enterprises Prior to 1949 287 16.3 Economic Conditions for the
Growth of Township and Village Enterprises 288 16.4 Econometric Measurement
of the Relative Efficiency of State Enterprises and TVEs 291 16.5
Characteristics of a Free-Market Economy 292 16.6 Characteristics of the
Chinese Market Ecomomy 295 16.7 Role of Entrepreneurs in China's Economic
Growth 297 References and Further Reading 299 Questions 299 17 Foreign
Trade 301 17.1 Some Statistics of China's Foreign Trade 301 17.2
Explanation of Trading Patterns under Free Trade 303 17.3 The Determination
of Foreign Exchange Rates 309 17.4 China's Foreign Trade Policy 314 17.5
Problems in Implementing Foreign Trade Policies in the Early 1980s 318 17.6
Protectionism in the United States 322 References and Further Reading 324
Questions 324 18 Foreign Investment 326 18.1 The Role of Foreign Investment
326 18.2 Historical Developments 328 18.3 The State of Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) as of 2002 329 18.4 Policies for the Regulation of Foreign
Investment 333 18.5 Opportunities and Problems for Foreign Investors 334
18.6 How Attractive Is China for Foreign Investment? 338 18.7 The Impact of
WTO Membership on Foreign Investment 339 18.8 China's Investment and
Economic Expansion Abroad 341 References and Further Reading 343 Questions
343 Part V: Studies of Economic Institutions and Infrastructure 345 19 Laws
of Asset Management and Corruption 347 19.1 Introduction 347 19.2 Laws of
Asset Management 349 19.3 Managing One's Own Person 352 19.4 Managing
Physical Assets 353 19.5 Managing Assets under the Responsibility System
355 19.6 The Misuse of Collectively Owned Land 358 19.7 Corruption and
Economic Reform 359 19.8 Concluding Comments 363 References and Further
Reading 364 Questions 365 20 The Legal System and the Role of Government
366 20.1 The Legal System prior to 1949 366 20.2 The Legal System since
1949 368 20.3 The Role of the Legal System in a Market Economy 371 20.4 The
Economic Role of Government 372 20.5 The Role of Planning in China's Market
Economy 376 20.6 The Government's Decision Process 382 References and
Further Reading 384 Questions 384 21 The Education System and Policy 385
21.1 The Education System prior to 1949 385 21.2 The Education System after
1949 387 21.3 Education Policy 387 21.4 Economics Education 390 21.5 Demand
for Education 398 21.6 Concluding Comments 403 References and Further
Reading 403 Questions 404 22 Lessons from Studying the Chinese Economy 405
22.1 Lessons for Understanding the Subject of Economics 405 22.2 Lessons
from Understanding the Chinese Economy 407 22.3 Lessons from Forecasting
the Chinese Economy 418 References and Further Reading 423 Questions 424
Index 425
Survey 1 1 Economic Lessons from History 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2
Significant Events in Major Historical Dynasties 4 1.3 The Republic of
China, 1911- 10 1.4 Summary of Historical Lessons 15 1.5 What History Can
Reveal about the Chinese Economy 16 References and Further Reading 17
Questions 18 2 Experiments with Planning and Economic Disruptions 20 2.1
The Communist Party Rises to Power 20 2.2 Historical Review: 1949-78 22 2.3
A Model of the Chinese Planned Economy 25 2.4 The Behavior of Economic
Units in a Planned Economy 29 2.5 Output Planning in Theory and Practice 32
2.6 Organization and Administration of Economic Planning 37 References and
Further Reading 40 Questions 41 3 Economic Reform up to the Mid-1990s 43
3.1 Why Economic Reform Started in 1978 43 3.2 Agriculture 45 3.3 Reform of
State-Owned Enterprises 46 3.4 Price Reform 48 3.5 The Banking System 49
3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment 50 3.7 The Nonstate Sectors 51 3.8
Institutional Infrastructure 52 3.9 Reform Policies Similar to Those of
Taiwan 53 3.10 Reasons for the Success of China's Economic Reform 56 3.11
Summary 60 Appendix: China's Geography 61 References and Further Reading 63
Questions 63 4 Further Reform up to the 2010s 65 4.1 Introduction 65 4.2
Enterprise Reform 66 4.3 Banking Reform 68 4.4 Foreign Trade and Investment
during the Asian Financial Crisis 72 4.5 The Impact of WTO Membership 74
4.6 Reform in Agriculture 81 4.7 Rural Poverty 82 4.8 Prospects for Reform
85 References and Further Reading 87 Questions 88 Part II: Analysis of the
Macroeconomy 89 5 Economic Growth 91 5.1 The Neoclassical Model of Economic
Growth 91 5.2 Data on Output, Capital, and Labor 93 5.3 A Review of
Regression Analysis 98 5.4 Estimating Production Functions for China 99 5.5
Use of the Neoclassical Growth Model to Forecast GDP 104 5.6 How Large Will
the Chinese Economy Be in 2020? 107 5.7 Lessons from Forecasting 108
References and Further Reading 108 Questions 109 6 Economic Fluctuations
110 6.1 The Multiplier-Accelerator Model of Economic Fluctuations 110 6.2
Dynamic Properties of the Multiplier-Accelerator Model 113 6.3 An
Econometric Method for Estimating Parameters of Linear Stochastic Equations
115 6.4 Estimating a Multiplier-Accelerator Model of the Chinese Economy
116 6.5 A Vector Autoregression (VAR) System 120 6.6 Econometric Models of
the Chinese Economy 122 References and Further Reading 122 Questions 123 7
Macroeconomic Policies 125 7.1 Introduction 125 7.2 Monetary Policy 127 7.3
An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and of Monetary Policy in China 134
7.4 Basic Facts about Government Revenue and Expenditure 136 7.5 Fiscal
Policy 139 References and Further Reading 140 Questions 141 8 The Effects
of Political Movements on the Macroeconomy 142 8.1 Specification of a
Dynamic Optimization Model of the Chinese Economy 142 8.2 The Solution of
the Dynamic Optimization Problem 145 8.3 Statistical Estimation 149 8.4
Measuring the Effects of Two Political Events 150 8.5 Conclusions 156
References and Further Reading 157 Questions 157 Part III: Topics in
Economic Development 159 9 Consumption 161 9.1 Trends in Per Capita
Consumption 161 9.2 Household Expenditure Patterns 165 9.3 Rural Per Capita
Consumption Expenditures in 1998 by Province 171 9.4 Consumption of Housing
in Rural and Urban Areas 173 9.5 Demand and Supply of Urban Housing 175
References and Further Reading 176 Questions 176 10 Energy and
Environmental Problems and Policies 178 10.1 Introduction 178 10.2
Environmental Problems in China 179 10.3 Laws, Agencies, and Policies for
Protecting the Environment 181 10.4 Problems of Policy Implementation and
Law Enforcement 185 10.5 A Study of Industrial Pollution 187 10.6
Regulation of China's Industrial Air Pollution 189 10.7 Conclusions 191
References and Further Reading 192 Questions 193 11 Population 194 11.1 The
Role of Population and Human Capital in Economic Development 194 11.2 The
Chinese Population and Its Rate of Growth 196 11.3 Population Policy 199
11.4 Evaluation of China's Population Policy 203 11.5 Economic Explanation
of the Birth Rate 205 11.6 Why the Population Control Policy Should Be
Terminated 207 References and Further Reading 207 Questions 208 12 Human
Capital 209 12.1 The Importance of Human Capital and Its Measurement 209
12.2 Labor Supply and Demand 210 12.3 Investment in Human Capital 216 12.4
Measuring the Rates of Return to Schooling in China 222 12.5 Health
Services 224 12.6 The Social Welfare System 228 References and Further
Reading 229 Questions 230 Part IV: Analysis of Individual Sectors 231 13
The Banking and Financial System 233 13.1 Commercial Banks 233 13.2 The
People's Bank 235 13.3 Factors Affecting the Functioning of the Banking
System 237 13.4 Possible Weaknesses of the System 240 13.5 Possible
Directions of Reform 241 13.6 Weakness of Commercial Banks and Related
Problems 243 13.7 Other Financial Institutions 244 13.8 The Role of the
Chinese Government in Reforming the Financial System 249 References and
Further Reading 251 Questions 251 14 Shanghai Stock Price Determination 253
14.1 Introduction 253 14.2 A Model of Stock Price Determination 254 14.3
Empirical Findings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange 257 14.4 Comparison
with Findings for Hong Kong and New York Stocks 262 14.5 Concluding
Comments 262 References and Further Reading 263 Questions 264 15 The
Behavior of State Enterprises 265 15.1 Organization of a State Enterprise
under Central Planning 265 15.2 Planning and Operations of a Large-Scale
State Enterprise 269 15.3 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise under
Central Planning 274 15.4 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise after
Initial Reform 277 15.5 State Enterprise Restructuring in the Late 1990s
and Its Effects on Enterprise Behavior 280 15.6 Current State of Chinese
State Enterprises 283 References and Further Reading 284 Questions 285 16
The Nonstate Sectors 286 16.1 Relative Growth of Nonstate Sectors 286 16.2
Private Enterprises Prior to 1949 287 16.3 Economic Conditions for the
Growth of Township and Village Enterprises 288 16.4 Econometric Measurement
of the Relative Efficiency of State Enterprises and TVEs 291 16.5
Characteristics of a Free-Market Economy 292 16.6 Characteristics of the
Chinese Market Ecomomy 295 16.7 Role of Entrepreneurs in China's Economic
Growth 297 References and Further Reading 299 Questions 299 17 Foreign
Trade 301 17.1 Some Statistics of China's Foreign Trade 301 17.2
Explanation of Trading Patterns under Free Trade 303 17.3 The Determination
of Foreign Exchange Rates 309 17.4 China's Foreign Trade Policy 314 17.5
Problems in Implementing Foreign Trade Policies in the Early 1980s 318 17.6
Protectionism in the United States 322 References and Further Reading 324
Questions 324 18 Foreign Investment 326 18.1 The Role of Foreign Investment
326 18.2 Historical Developments 328 18.3 The State of Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) as of 2002 329 18.4 Policies for the Regulation of Foreign
Investment 333 18.5 Opportunities and Problems for Foreign Investors 334
18.6 How Attractive Is China for Foreign Investment? 338 18.7 The Impact of
WTO Membership on Foreign Investment 339 18.8 China's Investment and
Economic Expansion Abroad 341 References and Further Reading 343 Questions
343 Part V: Studies of Economic Institutions and Infrastructure 345 19 Laws
of Asset Management and Corruption 347 19.1 Introduction 347 19.2 Laws of
Asset Management 349 19.3 Managing One's Own Person 352 19.4 Managing
Physical Assets 353 19.5 Managing Assets under the Responsibility System
355 19.6 The Misuse of Collectively Owned Land 358 19.7 Corruption and
Economic Reform 359 19.8 Concluding Comments 363 References and Further
Reading 364 Questions 365 20 The Legal System and the Role of Government
366 20.1 The Legal System prior to 1949 366 20.2 The Legal System since
1949 368 20.3 The Role of the Legal System in a Market Economy 371 20.4 The
Economic Role of Government 372 20.5 The Role of Planning in China's Market
Economy 376 20.6 The Government's Decision Process 382 References and
Further Reading 384 Questions 384 21 The Education System and Policy 385
21.1 The Education System prior to 1949 385 21.2 The Education System after
1949 387 21.3 Education Policy 387 21.4 Economics Education 390 21.5 Demand
for Education 398 21.6 Concluding Comments 403 References and Further
Reading 403 Questions 404 22 Lessons from Studying the Chinese Economy 405
22.1 Lessons for Understanding the Subject of Economics 405 22.2 Lessons
from Understanding the Chinese Economy 407 22.3 Lessons from Forecasting
the Chinese Economy 418 References and Further Reading 423 Questions 424
Index 425
Preface to the Third Edition xii Part I: Historical Background and General
Survey 1 1 Economic Lessons from History 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2
Significant Events in Major Historical Dynasties 4 1.3 The Republic of
China, 1911- 10 1.4 Summary of Historical Lessons 15 1.5 What History Can
Reveal about the Chinese Economy 16 References and Further Reading 17
Questions 18 2 Experiments with Planning and Economic Disruptions 20 2.1
The Communist Party Rises to Power 20 2.2 Historical Review: 1949-78 22 2.3
A Model of the Chinese Planned Economy 25 2.4 The Behavior of Economic
Units in a Planned Economy 29 2.5 Output Planning in Theory and Practice 32
2.6 Organization and Administration of Economic Planning 37 References and
Further Reading 40 Questions 41 3 Economic Reform up to the Mid-1990s 43
3.1 Why Economic Reform Started in 1978 43 3.2 Agriculture 45 3.3 Reform of
State-Owned Enterprises 46 3.4 Price Reform 48 3.5 The Banking System 49
3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment 50 3.7 The Nonstate Sectors 51 3.8
Institutional Infrastructure 52 3.9 Reform Policies Similar to Those of
Taiwan 53 3.10 Reasons for the Success of China's Economic Reform 56 3.11
Summary 60 Appendix: China's Geography 61 References and Further Reading 63
Questions 63 4 Further Reform up to the 2010s 65 4.1 Introduction 65 4.2
Enterprise Reform 66 4.3 Banking Reform 68 4.4 Foreign Trade and Investment
during the Asian Financial Crisis 72 4.5 The Impact of WTO Membership 74
4.6 Reform in Agriculture 81 4.7 Rural Poverty 82 4.8 Prospects for Reform
85 References and Further Reading 87 Questions 88 Part II: Analysis of the
Macroeconomy 89 5 Economic Growth 91 5.1 The Neoclassical Model of Economic
Growth 91 5.2 Data on Output, Capital, and Labor 93 5.3 A Review of
Regression Analysis 98 5.4 Estimating Production Functions for China 99 5.5
Use of the Neoclassical Growth Model to Forecast GDP 104 5.6 How Large Will
the Chinese Economy Be in 2020? 107 5.7 Lessons from Forecasting 108
References and Further Reading 108 Questions 109 6 Economic Fluctuations
110 6.1 The Multiplier-Accelerator Model of Economic Fluctuations 110 6.2
Dynamic Properties of the Multiplier-Accelerator Model 113 6.3 An
Econometric Method for Estimating Parameters of Linear Stochastic Equations
115 6.4 Estimating a Multiplier-Accelerator Model of the Chinese Economy
116 6.5 A Vector Autoregression (VAR) System 120 6.6 Econometric Models of
the Chinese Economy 122 References and Further Reading 122 Questions 123 7
Macroeconomic Policies 125 7.1 Introduction 125 7.2 Monetary Policy 127 7.3
An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and of Monetary Policy in China 134
7.4 Basic Facts about Government Revenue and Expenditure 136 7.5 Fiscal
Policy 139 References and Further Reading 140 Questions 141 8 The Effects
of Political Movements on the Macroeconomy 142 8.1 Specification of a
Dynamic Optimization Model of the Chinese Economy 142 8.2 The Solution of
the Dynamic Optimization Problem 145 8.3 Statistical Estimation 149 8.4
Measuring the Effects of Two Political Events 150 8.5 Conclusions 156
References and Further Reading 157 Questions 157 Part III: Topics in
Economic Development 159 9 Consumption 161 9.1 Trends in Per Capita
Consumption 161 9.2 Household Expenditure Patterns 165 9.3 Rural Per Capita
Consumption Expenditures in 1998 by Province 171 9.4 Consumption of Housing
in Rural and Urban Areas 173 9.5 Demand and Supply of Urban Housing 175
References and Further Reading 176 Questions 176 10 Energy and
Environmental Problems and Policies 178 10.1 Introduction 178 10.2
Environmental Problems in China 179 10.3 Laws, Agencies, and Policies for
Protecting the Environment 181 10.4 Problems of Policy Implementation and
Law Enforcement 185 10.5 A Study of Industrial Pollution 187 10.6
Regulation of China's Industrial Air Pollution 189 10.7 Conclusions 191
References and Further Reading 192 Questions 193 11 Population 194 11.1 The
Role of Population and Human Capital in Economic Development 194 11.2 The
Chinese Population and Its Rate of Growth 196 11.3 Population Policy 199
11.4 Evaluation of China's Population Policy 203 11.5 Economic Explanation
of the Birth Rate 205 11.6 Why the Population Control Policy Should Be
Terminated 207 References and Further Reading 207 Questions 208 12 Human
Capital 209 12.1 The Importance of Human Capital and Its Measurement 209
12.2 Labor Supply and Demand 210 12.3 Investment in Human Capital 216 12.4
Measuring the Rates of Return to Schooling in China 222 12.5 Health
Services 224 12.6 The Social Welfare System 228 References and Further
Reading 229 Questions 230 Part IV: Analysis of Individual Sectors 231 13
The Banking and Financial System 233 13.1 Commercial Banks 233 13.2 The
People's Bank 235 13.3 Factors Affecting the Functioning of the Banking
System 237 13.4 Possible Weaknesses of the System 240 13.5 Possible
Directions of Reform 241 13.6 Weakness of Commercial Banks and Related
Problems 243 13.7 Other Financial Institutions 244 13.8 The Role of the
Chinese Government in Reforming the Financial System 249 References and
Further Reading 251 Questions 251 14 Shanghai Stock Price Determination 253
14.1 Introduction 253 14.2 A Model of Stock Price Determination 254 14.3
Empirical Findings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange 257 14.4 Comparison
with Findings for Hong Kong and New York Stocks 262 14.5 Concluding
Comments 262 References and Further Reading 263 Questions 264 15 The
Behavior of State Enterprises 265 15.1 Organization of a State Enterprise
under Central Planning 265 15.2 Planning and Operations of a Large-Scale
State Enterprise 269 15.3 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise under
Central Planning 274 15.4 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise after
Initial Reform 277 15.5 State Enterprise Restructuring in the Late 1990s
and Its Effects on Enterprise Behavior 280 15.6 Current State of Chinese
State Enterprises 283 References and Further Reading 284 Questions 285 16
The Nonstate Sectors 286 16.1 Relative Growth of Nonstate Sectors 286 16.2
Private Enterprises Prior to 1949 287 16.3 Economic Conditions for the
Growth of Township and Village Enterprises 288 16.4 Econometric Measurement
of the Relative Efficiency of State Enterprises and TVEs 291 16.5
Characteristics of a Free-Market Economy 292 16.6 Characteristics of the
Chinese Market Ecomomy 295 16.7 Role of Entrepreneurs in China's Economic
Growth 297 References and Further Reading 299 Questions 299 17 Foreign
Trade 301 17.1 Some Statistics of China's Foreign Trade 301 17.2
Explanation of Trading Patterns under Free Trade 303 17.3 The Determination
of Foreign Exchange Rates 309 17.4 China's Foreign Trade Policy 314 17.5
Problems in Implementing Foreign Trade Policies in the Early 1980s 318 17.6
Protectionism in the United States 322 References and Further Reading 324
Questions 324 18 Foreign Investment 326 18.1 The Role of Foreign Investment
326 18.2 Historical Developments 328 18.3 The State of Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) as of 2002 329 18.4 Policies for the Regulation of Foreign
Investment 333 18.5 Opportunities and Problems for Foreign Investors 334
18.6 How Attractive Is China for Foreign Investment? 338 18.7 The Impact of
WTO Membership on Foreign Investment 339 18.8 China's Investment and
Economic Expansion Abroad 341 References and Further Reading 343 Questions
343 Part V: Studies of Economic Institutions and Infrastructure 345 19 Laws
of Asset Management and Corruption 347 19.1 Introduction 347 19.2 Laws of
Asset Management 349 19.3 Managing One's Own Person 352 19.4 Managing
Physical Assets 353 19.5 Managing Assets under the Responsibility System
355 19.6 The Misuse of Collectively Owned Land 358 19.7 Corruption and
Economic Reform 359 19.8 Concluding Comments 363 References and Further
Reading 364 Questions 365 20 The Legal System and the Role of Government
366 20.1 The Legal System prior to 1949 366 20.2 The Legal System since
1949 368 20.3 The Role of the Legal System in a Market Economy 371 20.4 The
Economic Role of Government 372 20.5 The Role of Planning in China's Market
Economy 376 20.6 The Government's Decision Process 382 References and
Further Reading 384 Questions 384 21 The Education System and Policy 385
21.1 The Education System prior to 1949 385 21.2 The Education System after
1949 387 21.3 Education Policy 387 21.4 Economics Education 390 21.5 Demand
for Education 398 21.6 Concluding Comments 403 References and Further
Reading 403 Questions 404 22 Lessons from Studying the Chinese Economy 405
22.1 Lessons for Understanding the Subject of Economics 405 22.2 Lessons
from Understanding the Chinese Economy 407 22.3 Lessons from Forecasting
the Chinese Economy 418 References and Further Reading 423 Questions 424
Index 425
Survey 1 1 Economic Lessons from History 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2
Significant Events in Major Historical Dynasties 4 1.3 The Republic of
China, 1911- 10 1.4 Summary of Historical Lessons 15 1.5 What History Can
Reveal about the Chinese Economy 16 References and Further Reading 17
Questions 18 2 Experiments with Planning and Economic Disruptions 20 2.1
The Communist Party Rises to Power 20 2.2 Historical Review: 1949-78 22 2.3
A Model of the Chinese Planned Economy 25 2.4 The Behavior of Economic
Units in a Planned Economy 29 2.5 Output Planning in Theory and Practice 32
2.6 Organization and Administration of Economic Planning 37 References and
Further Reading 40 Questions 41 3 Economic Reform up to the Mid-1990s 43
3.1 Why Economic Reform Started in 1978 43 3.2 Agriculture 45 3.3 Reform of
State-Owned Enterprises 46 3.4 Price Reform 48 3.5 The Banking System 49
3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment 50 3.7 The Nonstate Sectors 51 3.8
Institutional Infrastructure 52 3.9 Reform Policies Similar to Those of
Taiwan 53 3.10 Reasons for the Success of China's Economic Reform 56 3.11
Summary 60 Appendix: China's Geography 61 References and Further Reading 63
Questions 63 4 Further Reform up to the 2010s 65 4.1 Introduction 65 4.2
Enterprise Reform 66 4.3 Banking Reform 68 4.4 Foreign Trade and Investment
during the Asian Financial Crisis 72 4.5 The Impact of WTO Membership 74
4.6 Reform in Agriculture 81 4.7 Rural Poverty 82 4.8 Prospects for Reform
85 References and Further Reading 87 Questions 88 Part II: Analysis of the
Macroeconomy 89 5 Economic Growth 91 5.1 The Neoclassical Model of Economic
Growth 91 5.2 Data on Output, Capital, and Labor 93 5.3 A Review of
Regression Analysis 98 5.4 Estimating Production Functions for China 99 5.5
Use of the Neoclassical Growth Model to Forecast GDP 104 5.6 How Large Will
the Chinese Economy Be in 2020? 107 5.7 Lessons from Forecasting 108
References and Further Reading 108 Questions 109 6 Economic Fluctuations
110 6.1 The Multiplier-Accelerator Model of Economic Fluctuations 110 6.2
Dynamic Properties of the Multiplier-Accelerator Model 113 6.3 An
Econometric Method for Estimating Parameters of Linear Stochastic Equations
115 6.4 Estimating a Multiplier-Accelerator Model of the Chinese Economy
116 6.5 A Vector Autoregression (VAR) System 120 6.6 Econometric Models of
the Chinese Economy 122 References and Further Reading 122 Questions 123 7
Macroeconomic Policies 125 7.1 Introduction 125 7.2 Monetary Policy 127 7.3
An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and of Monetary Policy in China 134
7.4 Basic Facts about Government Revenue and Expenditure 136 7.5 Fiscal
Policy 139 References and Further Reading 140 Questions 141 8 The Effects
of Political Movements on the Macroeconomy 142 8.1 Specification of a
Dynamic Optimization Model of the Chinese Economy 142 8.2 The Solution of
the Dynamic Optimization Problem 145 8.3 Statistical Estimation 149 8.4
Measuring the Effects of Two Political Events 150 8.5 Conclusions 156
References and Further Reading 157 Questions 157 Part III: Topics in
Economic Development 159 9 Consumption 161 9.1 Trends in Per Capita
Consumption 161 9.2 Household Expenditure Patterns 165 9.3 Rural Per Capita
Consumption Expenditures in 1998 by Province 171 9.4 Consumption of Housing
in Rural and Urban Areas 173 9.5 Demand and Supply of Urban Housing 175
References and Further Reading 176 Questions 176 10 Energy and
Environmental Problems and Policies 178 10.1 Introduction 178 10.2
Environmental Problems in China 179 10.3 Laws, Agencies, and Policies for
Protecting the Environment 181 10.4 Problems of Policy Implementation and
Law Enforcement 185 10.5 A Study of Industrial Pollution 187 10.6
Regulation of China's Industrial Air Pollution 189 10.7 Conclusions 191
References and Further Reading 192 Questions 193 11 Population 194 11.1 The
Role of Population and Human Capital in Economic Development 194 11.2 The
Chinese Population and Its Rate of Growth 196 11.3 Population Policy 199
11.4 Evaluation of China's Population Policy 203 11.5 Economic Explanation
of the Birth Rate 205 11.6 Why the Population Control Policy Should Be
Terminated 207 References and Further Reading 207 Questions 208 12 Human
Capital 209 12.1 The Importance of Human Capital and Its Measurement 209
12.2 Labor Supply and Demand 210 12.3 Investment in Human Capital 216 12.4
Measuring the Rates of Return to Schooling in China 222 12.5 Health
Services 224 12.6 The Social Welfare System 228 References and Further
Reading 229 Questions 230 Part IV: Analysis of Individual Sectors 231 13
The Banking and Financial System 233 13.1 Commercial Banks 233 13.2 The
People's Bank 235 13.3 Factors Affecting the Functioning of the Banking
System 237 13.4 Possible Weaknesses of the System 240 13.5 Possible
Directions of Reform 241 13.6 Weakness of Commercial Banks and Related
Problems 243 13.7 Other Financial Institutions 244 13.8 The Role of the
Chinese Government in Reforming the Financial System 249 References and
Further Reading 251 Questions 251 14 Shanghai Stock Price Determination 253
14.1 Introduction 253 14.2 A Model of Stock Price Determination 254 14.3
Empirical Findings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange 257 14.4 Comparison
with Findings for Hong Kong and New York Stocks 262 14.5 Concluding
Comments 262 References and Further Reading 263 Questions 264 15 The
Behavior of State Enterprises 265 15.1 Organization of a State Enterprise
under Central Planning 265 15.2 Planning and Operations of a Large-Scale
State Enterprise 269 15.3 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise under
Central Planning 274 15.4 A Simple Model of a State Enterprise after
Initial Reform 277 15.5 State Enterprise Restructuring in the Late 1990s
and Its Effects on Enterprise Behavior 280 15.6 Current State of Chinese
State Enterprises 283 References and Further Reading 284 Questions 285 16
The Nonstate Sectors 286 16.1 Relative Growth of Nonstate Sectors 286 16.2
Private Enterprises Prior to 1949 287 16.3 Economic Conditions for the
Growth of Township and Village Enterprises 288 16.4 Econometric Measurement
of the Relative Efficiency of State Enterprises and TVEs 291 16.5
Characteristics of a Free-Market Economy 292 16.6 Characteristics of the
Chinese Market Ecomomy 295 16.7 Role of Entrepreneurs in China's Economic
Growth 297 References and Further Reading 299 Questions 299 17 Foreign
Trade 301 17.1 Some Statistics of China's Foreign Trade 301 17.2
Explanation of Trading Patterns under Free Trade 303 17.3 The Determination
of Foreign Exchange Rates 309 17.4 China's Foreign Trade Policy 314 17.5
Problems in Implementing Foreign Trade Policies in the Early 1980s 318 17.6
Protectionism in the United States 322 References and Further Reading 324
Questions 324 18 Foreign Investment 326 18.1 The Role of Foreign Investment
326 18.2 Historical Developments 328 18.3 The State of Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) as of 2002 329 18.4 Policies for the Regulation of Foreign
Investment 333 18.5 Opportunities and Problems for Foreign Investors 334
18.6 How Attractive Is China for Foreign Investment? 338 18.7 The Impact of
WTO Membership on Foreign Investment 339 18.8 China's Investment and
Economic Expansion Abroad 341 References and Further Reading 343 Questions
343 Part V: Studies of Economic Institutions and Infrastructure 345 19 Laws
of Asset Management and Corruption 347 19.1 Introduction 347 19.2 Laws of
Asset Management 349 19.3 Managing One's Own Person 352 19.4 Managing
Physical Assets 353 19.5 Managing Assets under the Responsibility System
355 19.6 The Misuse of Collectively Owned Land 358 19.7 Corruption and
Economic Reform 359 19.8 Concluding Comments 363 References and Further
Reading 364 Questions 365 20 The Legal System and the Role of Government
366 20.1 The Legal System prior to 1949 366 20.2 The Legal System since
1949 368 20.3 The Role of the Legal System in a Market Economy 371 20.4 The
Economic Role of Government 372 20.5 The Role of Planning in China's Market
Economy 376 20.6 The Government's Decision Process 382 References and
Further Reading 384 Questions 384 21 The Education System and Policy 385
21.1 The Education System prior to 1949 385 21.2 The Education System after
1949 387 21.3 Education Policy 387 21.4 Economics Education 390 21.5 Demand
for Education 398 21.6 Concluding Comments 403 References and Further
Reading 403 Questions 404 22 Lessons from Studying the Chinese Economy 405
22.1 Lessons for Understanding the Subject of Economics 405 22.2 Lessons
from Understanding the Chinese Economy 407 22.3 Lessons from Forecasting
the Chinese Economy 418 References and Further Reading 423 Questions 424
Index 425