Glenn Koller

Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making (eBook, PDF)

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk/uncertainty analyses from a broad range of applications. Decision/option selection ManufacturingEnvironmental assessment PricingIdentification of business drivers Production sharingInsurance Scheduling and optimizationInvesting SecurityLawEmphasizing value as the focus of risk assessment, this book offers discussions on how to make decisions using each risk model and what insights the model can provide. The presentation of each model also includes computer code that encapsulates its logic and direction on how to apply the model to other types of problems.The author devotes a chapter to techniques for consistently collecting data in an inconsistent world and offers another chapter on how to reflect the effect of "e;soft"e; issues in the value of an opportunity. The book's final chapters delineate the techniques and technologies used to perform risk/uncertainty analyses, including sections on distribution, Monte Carlo process, dependence, sensitivity analysis, time series analysis, and chance of failure.Visit RiskSupport.com for more information!

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: CRC Press
• Seitenzahl: 336
• Erscheinungstermin: 17. Mai 2000
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781420035940
• Artikelnr.: 53046178

Autorenporträt

Koller, Glenn

Inhaltsangabe

Introduction. Two Approaches to Solving Decision Trees
a Class
Action Suit Example. Terrorism Risk Models
Relative and Absolute Risk. Gathering Information Consistently in an Inconsistent World. New Manufacturing Facility
Business
Justification Model. Oil
Field
Development Investment
Opportunity Risk Model. Using Chance of Failure and Risk
Weighted values to Reflect the Effect of "Soft" Issues on the Value of an Opportunity. Production
Sharing Agreement Risk Model. Scheduling and Optimization Risk Model. Decision/Option
Selection Risk Model. Risk Process to Identify Business Drivers, Maximize Value, and Determine the Value of Potential Expenditures. Summary. Building a Consensus Model. Building a Contributing
Factor Diagram. Monte Carlo Analysis. Decisions and Distributions. Chance of Failure. Time Series Analysis and Dependence. Risk
Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis