Michael F Oppenheimer
Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures
Using Scenarios to Manage American Strategy
Michael F Oppenheimer
Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures
Using Scenarios to Manage American Strategy
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Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
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Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
Produktdetails
- Produktdetails
- Verlag: Oxford University Press, USA
- Seitenzahl: 272
- Erscheinungstermin: 1. Dezember 2015
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 219mm x 138mm x 20mm
- Gewicht: 337g
- ISBN-13: 9780199397105
- ISBN-10: 0199397104
- Artikelnr.: 47866646
- Verlag: Oxford University Press, USA
- Seitenzahl: 272
- Erscheinungstermin: 1. Dezember 2015
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 219mm x 138mm x 20mm
- Gewicht: 337g
- ISBN-13: 9780199397105
- ISBN-10: 0199397104
- Artikelnr.: 47866646
Professor for Global Affairs, New York University Center for Global Affairs
Contents: (Level 1)
Introduction (Level 1)
Chapter One: The Problem: Fateful Decisions in Uncertainty (Level 1)
A Global most likely Scenario (Level 2)
Russia: Working Authoritarianism (Level 3)
China: Strong State (Level 3)
Making Decisions in this most likely Future (Level 2)
Can we do better? (Level 2)
Chapter Two: Potential Applications: Historical Cases (Level 1)
The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Level 2)
The Failure of the Doha Round of Trade Negotiations (Level 2)
The Terrorist Attacks of 9/11 (Level 2)
The US Invasion of Iraq (Level 2)
The Arab Spring (Level 2)
Obama Grand Strategy (Level 2)
The Syrian Civil War (Level 2)
Chapter Three: Value of Scenarios (Level 1)
What about Prediction? (Level 2)
Timing is almost everything (Level 2)
Beyond Timing: the Importance of Process (Level 2)
What's a good set of Scenarios? (Level 2)
Chapter Four: The Scenario Construction Process (Level 1)
Design of Scenario Process (Level 2)
Selecting Participants for Scenario Workshops (Level 2)
Pre-Workshop Research on Drivers of Change (Level 2)
Drivers Paper: (Level 2)
China 2020 (Level 3)
Ukraine 2020 (Level 3)
The Scenarios Process: Syria (Level 2)
How to Facilitate (Level 2)
Composing the Scenario Narrative (Level 2)
Some Lessons Learned (Level 2)
Traps (Level 2)
Chapter Five: Future Applications and Policy Process (Level 1)
Introduction (Level 1)
Chapter One: The Problem: Fateful Decisions in Uncertainty (Level 1)
A Global most likely Scenario (Level 2)
Russia: Working Authoritarianism (Level 3)
China: Strong State (Level 3)
Making Decisions in this most likely Future (Level 2)
Can we do better? (Level 2)
Chapter Two: Potential Applications: Historical Cases (Level 1)
The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Level 2)
The Failure of the Doha Round of Trade Negotiations (Level 2)
The Terrorist Attacks of 9/11 (Level 2)
The US Invasion of Iraq (Level 2)
The Arab Spring (Level 2)
Obama Grand Strategy (Level 2)
The Syrian Civil War (Level 2)
Chapter Three: Value of Scenarios (Level 1)
What about Prediction? (Level 2)
Timing is almost everything (Level 2)
Beyond Timing: the Importance of Process (Level 2)
What's a good set of Scenarios? (Level 2)
Chapter Four: The Scenario Construction Process (Level 1)
Design of Scenario Process (Level 2)
Selecting Participants for Scenario Workshops (Level 2)
Pre-Workshop Research on Drivers of Change (Level 2)
Drivers Paper: (Level 2)
China 2020 (Level 3)
Ukraine 2020 (Level 3)
The Scenarios Process: Syria (Level 2)
How to Facilitate (Level 2)
Composing the Scenario Narrative (Level 2)
Some Lessons Learned (Level 2)
Traps (Level 2)
Chapter Five: Future Applications and Policy Process (Level 1)
Contents: (Level 1)
Introduction (Level 1)
Chapter One: The Problem: Fateful Decisions in Uncertainty (Level 1)
A Global most likely Scenario (Level 2)
Russia: Working Authoritarianism (Level 3)
China: Strong State (Level 3)
Making Decisions in this most likely Future (Level 2)
Can we do better? (Level 2)
Chapter Two: Potential Applications: Historical Cases (Level 1)
The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Level 2)
The Failure of the Doha Round of Trade Negotiations (Level 2)
The Terrorist Attacks of 9/11 (Level 2)
The US Invasion of Iraq (Level 2)
The Arab Spring (Level 2)
Obama Grand Strategy (Level 2)
The Syrian Civil War (Level 2)
Chapter Three: Value of Scenarios (Level 1)
What about Prediction? (Level 2)
Timing is almost everything (Level 2)
Beyond Timing: the Importance of Process (Level 2)
What's a good set of Scenarios? (Level 2)
Chapter Four: The Scenario Construction Process (Level 1)
Design of Scenario Process (Level 2)
Selecting Participants for Scenario Workshops (Level 2)
Pre-Workshop Research on Drivers of Change (Level 2)
Drivers Paper: (Level 2)
China 2020 (Level 3)
Ukraine 2020 (Level 3)
The Scenarios Process: Syria (Level 2)
How to Facilitate (Level 2)
Composing the Scenario Narrative (Level 2)
Some Lessons Learned (Level 2)
Traps (Level 2)
Chapter Five: Future Applications and Policy Process (Level 1)
Introduction (Level 1)
Chapter One: The Problem: Fateful Decisions in Uncertainty (Level 1)
A Global most likely Scenario (Level 2)
Russia: Working Authoritarianism (Level 3)
China: Strong State (Level 3)
Making Decisions in this most likely Future (Level 2)
Can we do better? (Level 2)
Chapter Two: Potential Applications: Historical Cases (Level 1)
The Disintegration of Yugoslavia (Level 2)
The Failure of the Doha Round of Trade Negotiations (Level 2)
The Terrorist Attacks of 9/11 (Level 2)
The US Invasion of Iraq (Level 2)
The Arab Spring (Level 2)
Obama Grand Strategy (Level 2)
The Syrian Civil War (Level 2)
Chapter Three: Value of Scenarios (Level 1)
What about Prediction? (Level 2)
Timing is almost everything (Level 2)
Beyond Timing: the Importance of Process (Level 2)
What's a good set of Scenarios? (Level 2)
Chapter Four: The Scenario Construction Process (Level 1)
Design of Scenario Process (Level 2)
Selecting Participants for Scenario Workshops (Level 2)
Pre-Workshop Research on Drivers of Change (Level 2)
Drivers Paper: (Level 2)
China 2020 (Level 3)
Ukraine 2020 (Level 3)
The Scenarios Process: Syria (Level 2)
How to Facilitate (Level 2)
Composing the Scenario Narrative (Level 2)
Some Lessons Learned (Level 2)
Traps (Level 2)
Chapter Five: Future Applications and Policy Process (Level 1)