Herbert I. Weisberg

Willful Ignorance (eBook, PDF)

The Mismeasure of Uncertainty

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

---

Dieser Download kann aus rechtlichen Gründen nur mit Rechnungsadresse in A, B, BG, CY, CZ, D, DK, EW, E, FIN, F, GR, HR, H, IRL, I, LT, L, LR, M, NL, PL, P, R, S, SLO, SK ausgeliefert werden.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
• Seitenzahl: 464
• Erscheinungstermin: 23. Juni 2014
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781118594414
• Artikelnr.: 41107677

Autorenporträt

Herbert I. Weisberg, PhD, is Founder of Causalytics, LLC, which develops innovative technology for predictive analytics for both medical research and business applications. He was previously President of Correlation Research Inc., a consulting firm specializing in the application of statistics to various business and legal issues. A Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Dr. Weisberg has published numerous articles and two previous books related to applied statistics.

Inhaltsangabe

PREFACE xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv 1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY 1 Two Dead Ends 2
Analytical Engines 4 What is Probability? 6 Uncertainty 9 Willful Ignorance
12 Toward a New Science 15 2 A QUIET REVOLUTION 19 Thinking the Unthinkable
21 Inventing Probability 24 Statistics 27 The Taming of Chance 31 The
Ignorance Fallacy 34 The Dilemma of Science 35 3 A MATTER OF CHANCE 41
Origins 43 Probability 44 The Famous Correspondence 56 What Did Not Happen
Next 60 AgainstThe Odds 64 4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON 71 The Mathematics of
Chance 73 Empirical Frequencies 82 A Quantum of Certainty 100 5 A
MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL 114 Publication at Last 116 The Art of Conjecturing
117 A Tragic Ending 142 6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER 147 Man Without a Country
150 A Fraction of Chances 165 7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 171 Revolutionary
Reverends 173 From Chances to Probability 194 8 BABEL 213 The Great
Unraveling 216 Probability as a Relative Frequency 219 Probability as a
Logical Relationship 228 Probability as a Subjective Assessment 239
Probability as a Propensity 247 9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY 253 The Razor's
Edge 255 What Fisher Knew 257 What Reference Class? 262 A Postulate of
Ignorance 270 Laplace's Error 279 10 THE DECISION FACTORY 283 Beyond Moral
Certainty 284 Decisions, Decisions 298 Machine-Made Knowledge 309 11 THE
LOTTERY IN SCIENCE 312 Scientific Progress 313 Fooled by Causality 319
Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity? 331 Regression toward the Mean
339 12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY 346 A New Problem 347 Trust,... 354 ...But Verify
357 The Future 363 Mindful Ignorance 368 APPENDIX: THE PASCAL-FERMAT
CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654 373 NOTES 387 BIBLIOGRAPHY 415 INDEX 429