Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability (eBook, PDF)

Redaktion: Alho, Juha M.

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Cambridge University Press
• Erscheinungstermin: 13. März 2008
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9780511380280
• Artikelnr.: 38185391

Inhaltsangabe

List of figures; List of tables; List of contributors; Preface; 1.
Introduction Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila; Part
I. Uncertain Demographics: 2. Changing views of future demographic trends
Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen, and Juha M. Alho; 3. Empirically-based
specification of forecast uncertainty Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico
Keilman; Comment: the UPE forecasts: strengths, innovations, developments
Shripad Tuljapurkar; Part II. Measuring Sustainability in a Stochastic
Environment: 4. Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons
across the European Union Martin Weale; 5. Demographic uncertainty and
pension projections Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen; 6. Demographic
uncertainty and health care expenditure Namkee Ahn; Comment: assessing the
uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections Pablo Antolin; Part III.
Enhancing Sustainability: 7. Evaluating pension reforms in the German
context Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann; 8. Longevity adjustment of
pension benefits Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen; 9. Ageing, demographic
uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy Alex Armstrong, Nick Draper, André
Nibbelink and Ed Westerhout; Comment: computable equilibrium models in
policy analysis: future directions D. Peter Broer; Part IV. Extensions: 10.
Macroeconomic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions
Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho; 11. Informational assumptions, aggregate
mortality risk and life cycle saving Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen; 12.
Longevity adjustment of retirement age and intergenerational risk sharing
Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen; 13. A general equilibrium
analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk
Justin van de Ven and Martin Weale; Comment: the economics of demographic
uncertainty Martin Flodén; Index.