Over the past two decades, the most serious problems with U.S. foreign policy have revolved around the challenge of assessing uncertainty. Past experiences have shown that there is an urgent need to find ways of improving the ways in which foreign policy analysts assess uncertainty, and the ways in which foreign policy decision makers account for risk when evaluating high-stakes choices. This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices.…mehr
Over the past two decades, the most serious problems with U.S. foreign policy have revolved around the challenge of assessing uncertainty. Past experiences have shown that there is an urgent need to find ways of improving the ways in which foreign policy analysts assess uncertainty, and the ways in which foreign policy decision makers account for risk when evaluating high-stakes choices. This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices.
Jeffrey A. Friedman is Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. His research focuses on the ways in which risk and uncertainty shape high-stakes policy decisions, particularly in the domain of national security. His research has been published by the American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, and International Security, among other journals. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 2013.
Inhaltsangabe
Acknowledgments Introduction: "One of the Things You Learn as President Is That You're Always Dealing with Probabilities" Chapter 1: Pathologies of Probability Assessment Chapter 2: Subjective Probability and International Politics Chapter 3: The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment Chapter 4: Dispelling Illusions of Rigor Chapter 5: The Politics of Uncertainty and Blame Chapter 6: Analysis and Decision Chapter 7: Practical Implications and Directions for Further Research Appendix
Acknowledgments Introduction: "One of the Things You Learn as President Is That You're Always Dealing with Probabilities" Chapter 1: Pathologies of Probability Assessment Chapter 2: Subjective Probability and International Politics Chapter 3: The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment Chapter 4: Dispelling Illusions of Rigor Chapter 5: The Politics of Uncertainty and Blame Chapter 6: Analysis and Decision Chapter 7: Practical Implications and Directions for Further Research Appendix
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