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preventing conflict, as well as in ending conflict when it occurs, after the abrupt passing of a situation in which the source and nature of a conflict were highly predictable and the emergence of new circumstances in which potential security threats are multiple, variable, and difficult to measure. Contemporary Europe is a mixture of old and new, of arrested and accelerated history. Europe's governments and institutions have been only partly successful in meeting new security challenges, to a high degree because of failing unity and political will. "Yesterday, Europe only just avoided perishing from imperial follies and frenzied ideologies," wrote the late Raymond Aron in 1976, "she could perish tomorrow through historical abdication."