Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. How can we distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones?
Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. How can we distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones?
Produktdetails
Produktdetails
ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society
Dr Ian Horwood is a historian at York St John University, where he is a Senior Lecturer. His principal interests are in US military history, airpower history, and the wars in Indochina. Dr Horwood received his PhD. in history from the University of Leeds. Professor Niall MacKay is a mathematician and theoretical physicist at the University of York. He has interests in military history, operations research and combat modelling. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Durham University. Dr Christopher Price is Senior Lecturer in History at York St John University. His main areas of interest are political, economic and military history in the twentieth century, especially British and US history in the period surrounding the Great Depression, the two World Wars and the Cold War. He received his PhD. in history from the University of York. Professor Andrew James (Jamie) Wood is a mathematician and systems biologist at the University of York. He specialises in the simulation and analysis of complex systems, and has interests across a range of modern international history and the analysis of warfare. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Imperial College London. Dr Brennen Fagan is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity and the Department of Mathematics, where he studies the Mathematics of Biodiversity Change. He received his PhD. in Mathematics from the University of York, where he worked with the York Historical Warfare Analysis Group to better understand human conflict by examining and modelling historical war data.
Inhaltsangabe
1. Could History Have Been Otherwise? 2. Could the Germans Have Won the Battle of Jutland? 3. Could the Germans Have Won the Battle of Britain? 4. Could the United States Have Prevailed in Vietnam? 5. The Road to Able Archer: Counterfactual Reasoning and the Dangerous History of Nuclear Deterrence 1945-1983 6. Conclusions
1. Could History Have Been Otherwise? 2. Could the Germans Have Won the Battle of Jutland? 3. Could the Germans Have Won the Battle of Britain? 4. Could the United States Have Prevailed in Vietnam? 5. The Road to Able Archer: Counterfactual Reasoning and the Dangerous History of Nuclear Deterrence 1945-1983 6. Conclusions
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