PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR SHORT TERM TRAFFIC CONDITIONS PREDICTION
Yan QiSherif Ishak
Broschiertes Buch

PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR SHORT TERM TRAFFIC CONDITIONS PREDICTION

The application of Hidden Markov Model in short term traffic condition prediction

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Given the dynamic nature of freeway traffic, this study proposed two stochastic model approaches, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and One-Step Stochastic Model, for short-term traffic prediction during peak periods. The HMM approach defines traffic states in a two dimensional space using both first and second order statistics of traffic parameters. For a sequence of traffic speed observations, the HMMs estimated the most likely corresponding traffic states sequence. The one-step stochastic model uses traffic speed as the traffic condition indicator. The cumulative negative/positive transition probab...