The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, Italy and the United States demonstrate how much more accurate 'Sentiment Analysis' can prove.
The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, Italy and the United States demonstrate how much more accurate 'Sentiment Analysis' can prove.
Andrea Ceron is Assistant Professor at Università degli Studi di Milano, Italy, where he teaches Political and Administrative Systems, and Applied Multivariate Analysis for Social Scientists. His research focuses on intra-party politics, quantitative text analysis, media bias, and social media analysis. He has published a dozen of papers in international academic peer-reviewed journals like British Journal of Political Science, European Journal of Political Research, Party Politics, New Media & Society , Electoral Studies, Social Science Computer Review, Journal of Language and Politics, and others. Luigi Curini is Associate Professor of political science at Università degli studi di Milano, Italy, where he teaches Political Science, Applied Multivariate Analysis for Social Scientists, Game Theory, and Analysis of Political Institutions. His research focuses on party competition, spatial theory of voting, and social media analysis. He has published over 30 papers in international academic peer-reviewed journals like Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, European Journal of Political Research, Public Choice, Party Politics, European Political Science Review and many others. Stefano Maria Iacus is Professor of mathematical statistics and probability at Università degli Studi di Milano, Italy. Member of the R Core Team for the deveolpment of the R statistical software. His fields of interest include computational statistics, theoretical statistics, inference for stochastic processes, text mining and sentiment analysis, and causal inference. He has published over 50 papers in international academic peer-reviewed journals.
Inhaltsangabe
Introduction Chapter 1 Social media electoral forecasts: An overview Chapter 2 From noise to signal in sentiment and opinion analysis Chapter 3 Nowcasting and forecasting the campaign: Evidence from France, the United States, and Italy Chapter 4 Leaders, promises and negative campaigning. Digging into an electoral campaign through social media Chapter 5 Social media and electoral forecasts: Sources of bias and meta-analysis Chapter 6 Conclusion. "To predict or not to predict?" Future avenues of social media research within and beyond electoral forecasts
Introduction Chapter 1 Social media electoral forecasts: An overview Chapter 2 From noise to signal in sentiment and opinion analysis Chapter 3 Nowcasting and forecasting the campaign: Evidence from France, the United States, and Italy Chapter 4 Leaders, promises and negative campaigning. Digging into an electoral campaign through social media Chapter 5 Social media and electoral forecasts: Sources of bias and meta-analysis Chapter 6 Conclusion. "To predict or not to predict?" Future avenues of social media research within and beyond electoral forecasts
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