This book assesses the full impact of oil windfalls on six developing producer countries - Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. This is the first time that the issue has been systematically analysed and related to economics policies and underlying macroeconomic characteristics. The book adopts a broad approach, blending institutional and political aspects with quantitative analysis which includes the results of sophisticated model simulations. It presents new information on how oil discoveries have been used by producer governments, and analyses of the consequences. Finally it concludes that much of the potential benefit to producers has been dissipated, and explains why producers may actually end up worse off despite revenue gains.
Table of contents:
PART I. APPROACH TO WINDFALL GAINS: Introduction; Theoretical approaches to the analysis of windfall effects; Absorbing mineral rents: The record and the policy options; PART II. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: Introduction; The magnitude and uses of the oil windfalls, 1974-81; Sectoral shifts, real exchange rates, and the Dutch disease; The efficiency of fiscal linkage: Windfalls and growth; From boom to bust: The downside of the cycle and asymmetric macroeconomic response; Summary of findings; PART III. COUNTRY STUDIES. Algeria: Windfalls in a socialist economy; Ecuador: Windfalls of a new exporter; Indonesia : Windfalls in a poor rural economy; Nigeria: From windfall qains to welfare losses?; Trinidad and Tobago: Windfalls in a small parliamentary democracy; Venezuela: Absorption without growth
Table of contents:
PART I. APPROACH TO WINDFALL GAINS: Introduction; Theoretical approaches to the analysis of windfall effects; Absorbing mineral rents: The record and the policy options; PART II. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: Introduction; The magnitude and uses of the oil windfalls, 1974-81; Sectoral shifts, real exchange rates, and the Dutch disease; The efficiency of fiscal linkage: Windfalls and growth; From boom to bust: The downside of the cycle and asymmetric macroeconomic response; Summary of findings; PART III. COUNTRY STUDIES. Algeria: Windfalls in a socialist economy; Ecuador: Windfalls of a new exporter; Indonesia : Windfalls in a poor rural economy; Nigeria: From windfall qains to welfare losses?; Trinidad and Tobago: Windfalls in a small parliamentary democracy; Venezuela: Absorption without growth