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As military and other governmental budgets decline and impacted project deadline changes require instantaneous responses, cost analysts' tasks become more and more formidable. Inaccurate estimates can lead to misappropriation of resources and can thus create delays in goods reaching warfighters. This thesis aims to avail cost estimators of more reliable projection tools and to challenge the status quo of cost estimating, the production rate cost improvement model, when programs face reductions in lot quantities. The findings reveal that the status quo proves efficient under many cost profiles, but clearly does not estimate as well when a program suffers lot quantity reduction coupled with loss of cost efficiency.