Demographic Forecasting - Girosi, Federico; King, Gary
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"A substantial contribution in terms of ideas and methods. This book introduces a new methodology for forecasting mortality that takes into account important predictors, formalizes the use of prior knowledge such as expert opinion, and produces estimates of forecasting uncertainty, using a Bayesian statistical framework. It also provides convincing evidence that the new methods can outperform some of the best alternatives available. The techniques have wide applicability."--Germn Rodrguez, Princeton University "This book is excellent and important."--Ronald Lee, University of California,…mehr

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Produktbeschreibung
"A substantial contribution in terms of ideas and methods. This book introduces a new methodology for forecasting mortality that takes into account important predictors, formalizes the use of prior knowledge such as expert opinion, and produces estimates of forecasting uncertainty, using a Bayesian statistical framework. It also provides convincing evidence that the new methods can outperform some of the best alternatives available. The techniques have wide applicability."--Germn Rodrguez, Princeton University "This book is excellent and important."--Ronald Lee, University of California, Berkeley
Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. This title provides a framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate information than standard approaches.
Autorenporträt
Federico Girosi is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Gary King is the David Florence Professor of Government, and director of the Institute for Quantitative Social Science, at Harvard University.