Defense or Deterrence? The Future of Missile Defense
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This study seeks to determine whether it is time to pursue a new defense strategy that incorporates ballistic missile defense. It reviews the historical milestones in the missile defense debate using four major factors that influenced decisions on strategic defense: the threat, the technology, the international environment, and the domestic environment. The nature and magnitude of the threats that US leaders have sought to counter with missile defenses are determined from official assessments, such as the Central Intelligence Agency's National Intelligence Estimates. The technological feasibil...
This study seeks to determine whether it is time to pursue a new defense strategy that incorporates ballistic missile defense. It reviews the historical milestones in the missile defense debate using four major factors that influenced decisions on strategic defense: the threat, the technology, the international environment, and the domestic environment. The nature and magnitude of the threats that US leaders have sought to counter with missile defenses are determined from official assessments, such as the Central Intelligence Agency's National Intelligence Estimates. The technological feasibility assessment considers each prospective system's ability to counter those threats and the cost of doing so. The author's analysis of the international environment considers the international community's reaction to various American attempts to develop and field missile defenses. Finally, the domestic environment analysis focuses on the importance of players such as Congress, public opinion, the role of scientists, and the role of the President and his administration in missile defense decisions. The author assesses how those actors have supported proposed efforts to field missile defenses in various periods. Finally, this analysis examines what factors persuaded policy makers that missile defenses were unnecessary, undesirable, or impossible in the past, then determines whether current circumstances have changed enough to suggest that such systems are now needed and within reach. This study finds that it is indeed time for the US to pursue a strategy that includes strategic defense.
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