Ian Dunt

Brexit

What the Hell Happens Now?: Revised Edition

• Broschiertes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

The only book you need on Britain's biggest political issue. Find out how Brexit will affect Britain - and what will happen if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal. Based on interviews with experts in the law, trade and politics. Reviews Admirably brief and necessarily brutal... Whatever your position during the referendum, you ought to read Dunt because he is willing to face uncomfortable facts. Highly recommended. - Nick Cohen, The Spectator Compact and easily digestible. I'd encourage anyone who is confused, fascinated or frustrated by Brexit to read this book - you'll be far wiser by the end of it. - Caroline Lucas, Co-Leader, Green Party I would strongly recommend Ian Dunt's excellent guide. Dunt has taken the extraordinary step of asking a set of experts what they think. I learnt a lot. - Philip Collins, Prospect

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Canbury Press
• Seitenzahl: 192
• Erscheinungstermin: 31. Oktober 2017
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 198mm x 129mm x 11mm
• Gewicht: 211g
• ISBN-13: 9780995497856
• ISBN-10: 0995497850
• Artikelnr.: 49617300

Autorenporträt

IAN DUNT is a columnist with the i newspaper. He specialises in issues around immigration, civil liberties and social justice and appears as a pundit on BBC TV, Sky News and Al-Jazeera. With Dorian Lynskey, he presents the Origin Story podcast and is a regular contributor to the Oh God, What Now? podcast. Unlike other titles which look back at the EU referendum campaign, Brexit: What the Hell Happens Now? grapples with the consequences of actually leaving the EU.Ian's most recent book, How To Be A Liberal (Canbury, 2020), is an epic history of the spread of the ideas underpinning personal freedom.

Inhaltsangabe

MICHAEL GOVE QUOTE. 'I think the people in this country have had enough of
experts from organisations with acronyms, saying they know what’s best and
getting it consistently wrong.’ Michael Gove, Brexit campaigner, Sky News,
3 June 2016, when told the US, China, India, IMF, CBI etc opposed Brexit
INTRODUCTION. Imagines the disruption to trade if Britain left the European
Union without a deal and was forced to fall back on World Trade
Organisation rules, leading to Customs and country of origin checks on
British goods entering the Continent. Food starts to rot
WHAT WAS THAT? Ian Dunt was laying out Britain's worst-case scenario – a
chaotic heard Brexit. But there are alternatives. 'Based on extensive
research and discussions with leading experts in politics, the law, markets
and Europe, it maps the road ahead, with its multiple hazards and dangers'
WHAT DID WE VOTE FOR? On 23 June 2016, voters in the UK were asked: ‘Should
the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the
European Union.’ The results were: Remain 16,141,241 (48.1%), Leave
17,410,742 (51.9%). Voters could not specify which version of Brexit they
wanted
WHAT IS ARTICLE 50? Theresa May triggered Article 50 – the European Union
rule that must be invoked by any country wishing to leave – on 29 March
2017. Unlike pretty much any other European law ever written, Article 50 is
very short. And nightmarish for the UK
WHAT IS THE EUROPEAN PROJECT? Britain has always been deeply ignorant of
the motivation behind the European project, tracing the Coal and Steel
Community (France, West Germany, Italy, Holland, Belgium and Luxembourg),
European Economic Community which made a bigger common market, and European
Union
WHAT IS THE SINGLE MARKET? The single market had been the dream of European
planners from the outset. It would not just get rid of tariffs like an
ordinary free trade agreement, it would create four fundamental freedoms: •
Goods • Capital • Services • People. Europe's people and firms would merge
WHAT ARE THE POLITICS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION? Successive waves of
enlargements have increased the EU. Chart of EU members in 2016, relative
to the size of the economy. In the 1990s, the EU constructed the Eurozone,
a monetary union of 19 member states using the euro. Illustration of EU
members and Eurozone
WHAT ABOUT FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT? Boris Johnson joked that he was ‘pro having
my cake and pro eating it.’ The 27 remaining European leaders have stressed
that access to the single market ‘requires acceptance of all four
freedoms’, but there may still be some wriggle room.
WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY? Britain faced a full range of options for
withdrawal from the European Union, including staying in the customs union
and/or staying in the single market. The EU has a full range of menu
options for the single market. Norway and Switzerland are members in
different ways
NORWAY. When EFTA states Norway, Lichtenstein and Iceland joined the single
market they became members of a wider European Economic Area (EEA),
securing an arm’s length relationship with Brussels while enjoying the
benefits of free trade
SWITZERLAND. In 1992, Swiss voters rejected the idea of joining the other
EU objectors in the European Economic Area. Instead, the Swiss eventually
agreed on a series of bilateral treaties with the EU in return for access
to the single market. It is a messy fudge
TURKEY. Britain could leave the single market and stay in the customs
union. A customs union is only about the taxation of goods. It allows goods
to be moved between its members without paying tariffs and has one common
tariff arrangement for goods coming from outside.
CANADA. Leaving the single market and customs union means that the closest
economic relationship the UK and Europe can expect to have is a free trade
deal, like the one between the EU and Canada. One would allow Britain to
trade with the EU while reducing tariffs and country-of-origin checks
THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. Brexit supporters have long claimed that the
WTO is a safety net for the UK once it finally leaves Europe. They portray
the WTO as a virile, regulation-free wonderland just waiting for Britain to
take its place as one of the world’s leading trading nations. It is not.
HOW CAN WE KEEP THE UK TOGETHER? Most of Britain’s difficulties are based
on its desire to maintain the financial benefits of the EU while extracting
itself from sharing any sovereignty. But there is an aspect to the British
dilemma outside that trade-off: keeping the United Kingdom together
SCOTLAND. Most Scots voted to stay in the European Union, but that does not
mean that Brexit will lead to a surge in support for Scottish independence.
The British single market is worth four times as much to Scotland in terms
of jobs and trade than the EU single market
IRELAND. The problems in Scotland look like pleasantries next to those in
Ireland. At stake is nothing less than a reversal of two decades of careful
progress since the Troubles. And yet government ministers have seemed
largely uninterested in the impact of Brexit across the Irish Sea
WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO? Brexit cannot satisfy the dreams, but we can ask
the following questions: what do the leading Brexiters want, how talented
are they, what tools do they have at their disposal and in which context do
they operate? The answer to those questions grounds our expectations
WHAT DO THE BREXIT MINISTERS WANT? Since the Brexit referendum and the June
2017 general election British politics has been volatile and unpredictable,
so it’s impossible to know if the Brexit ministers in place (Boris Johnson,
David Davis, Liam Fox) will be in place for long
HOW TALENTED ARE THEY? Both Liam Fox and David Davis often seemed unable to
grasp the rudiments of the European Union and international trade. In July
2016, Dr Fox told The Sunday Times that ‘about a dozen free trade deals
outside the EU’ would be ‘ready for when we leave’
WHAT TOOLS DO THEY HAVE? The reliance of European businesses on the UK has
prompted some people to suggest ‘they need us more than we need them’. As
with all alluring nonsense, it is based on a grain of truth. But the
Brexiters have drastically underestimated the lopsidedness of the
relationship
WHAT IS THE CONTEXT? Ministers are operating in a complicated and
restrictive environment. They are being forced into an impossible timetable
by an overmighty negotiating partner while trying to establish a
society-wide regulatory framework and facing a volatile Parliament with no
majority
THE ECONOMY. After the referendum vote, the pound fell to a 31-year low on
currency markets. While there have been occasional bounces, the trend has
been downwards and there is no sign of sterling reaching its pre-referendum
level. The confidence of foreign investors in Britain's economy is waning
THE CITY OF LONDON. Britain’s financial services will weaken as banks move
part of their operations and staff to EU jurisdictions in Ireland or
mainland Europe. This will not be a rout, but a small and steady leak. The
City of London will survive Brexit
IMMIGRATION. Immigration to the UK fell after the referendum vote and
continued to do so thereafter. Although most members of the public don’t
know it due to decades of tabloid misinformation, this will lower the
standard of living. The reason is that immigration is good for the economy
THE PARLIAMENTARY BATTLE. Whoever occupies Downing Street will have a
difficult time trying to pass the legislation needed to deliver Brexit
unless they have a large working majority. As things stand, there is no
support in the Commons for any position, whether hard Brexit, soft Brexit
or Remain
MAKING A NEW COUNTRY. Britain’s membership of the European Union will also
kill off lots of other laws important to everyday life. Britain’s
membership of the EU is a legal agreement, enshrined in domestic law by the
European Communities Act 1972
THE TIME PROBLEM. Two years might just have been enough to complete the
administrative element of Article 50. It is not enough to recreate the EU’s
regulatory infrastructure or to negotiate, agree and ratify a good trade
deal. Anyone trying to finish these tasks competently probably needs 10
years
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER BREXIT? Exiting the European Union is so complicated it
would be impossible to achieve without statutory instruments. But it is
also incredibly dangerous. Ministers suddenly have the power to tinker with
nearly half a century of law and industrial standards
POSTSCRIPT. There is a need for patience and good sense... Absolute
sovereignty is a fantasy. The only absolute sovereignty available in the
world is North Korea’s model of total isolation. Outside of that, we must
make compromises in order to cooperate with other countries for our mutual
advantage
LIST OF EXPERTS. Including James Chalmers, Larry Elliott, Sir Lawrence
Freedman, Carl Gardner, Holger Hestermeyer, Markus W. Gehring, Dominic
Grieve, Sir Paul Jenkins, Sabine Jenni, Steve Keen, Guy Lougher, Anand
Menon, Giles Merritt, Laurent Pech, Steve Peers, Gavin Phillipson, Keith
Rockwell
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. I thank Martin Hickman, my publisher... who came to me
after my first post-referendum blog, Everything You Need To Know About
Theresa May’s Brexit Nightmare In Five Minutes, despite the fact that it
didn’t tell the reader everything they needed and couldn't be read in 5
minutes
REFERENCES. Full list of references and sources for important facts about
Britain's withdrawal from the European Union