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The textbook presents the basic concepts of events and classification of events (reliable, impossible, equally possible, opposite, common and incompatible), the frequency and probability of events, ways to find numerical values of the probability of the event, the basic probability theorems. Some variants of application of the above theorems in science during tests of aircraft (AC) to hit an object are presented.In all sections of the textbook are examples of basic concepts and theorems of probability theory and variants of their solution.Probability theory is an important science not only for the study of the movement of aircraft (AC), it is used in other areas of human activity in practice, in everyday life. It is built on all lotteries and gambling, rates on deposits and loans, decision-making on stock exchanges and currencies is also not without it. At the same time, decision-making and event analysis processes that are complex enough to understand are used, but probability theory is available everywhere.