Application of Post Modern Portfolio Theory to Mitigate Risk in International Shipping
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This research uses asset allocation concepts to determine the correct amount of cargo to send down the PAKGLOC and NDN to minimize the risk of loss or damage. Loss and Damage data is used from Transportation Discrepancy Reports and overall value is assumed to match the industry standard. Using assumed levels of pilferage along the NDN, a Monte Carlo simulation is run at each level of pilferage, and a Co-Lower Partial Moment model is solved. Analysis of the data shows a wide spread of possible optimal solutions at each level of pilferage. Due to the low levels of risk along each route, risk is ...
This research uses asset allocation concepts to determine the correct amount of cargo to send down the PAKGLOC and NDN to minimize the risk of loss or damage. Loss and Damage data is used from Transportation Discrepancy Reports and overall value is assumed to match the industry standard. Using assumed levels of pilferage along the NDN, a Monte Carlo simulation is run at each level of pilferage, and a Co-Lower Partial Moment model is solved. Analysis of the data shows a wide spread of possible optimal solutions at each level of pilferage. Due to the low levels of risk along each route, risk is not an appropriate factor to use alone to determine the best shipping mix into Afghanistan.
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