Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Third Edition is a textbook which addresses the important issue of predicting the safety of structures at the design stage and also the safety of existing, perhaps deteriorating structures. Attention is focused on the development and definition of limit states such as serviceability and ultimate strength, the definition of failure and the various models which might be used to describe strength and loading. This book emphasises concepts and applications, built up from basic principles and avoids undue mathematical rigour. It presents an accessible…mehr
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Third Edition is a textbook which addresses the important issue of predicting the safety of structures at the design stage and also the safety of existing, perhaps deteriorating structures. Attention is focused on the development and definition of limit states such as serviceability and ultimate strength, the definition of failure and the various models which might be used to describe strength and loading. This book emphasises concepts and applications, built up from basic principles and avoids undue mathematical rigour. It presents an accessible and unified account of the theory and techniques for the analysis of the reliability of engineering structures using probability theory.
This new edition has been updated to cover new developments and applications and a new chapter is included which covers structural optimization in the context of reliability analysis. New examples and end of chapter problems are also now included.
ROBERT E. MELCHERS, PhD, is a Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering at The University of Newcastle, Australia. His main areas of research expertise are in structural engineering risk and reliability analyses, probabilistic modelling of engineering systems, corrosion and deterioration modeling, and investigation of structural failures. ANDRÉ T. BECK, PhD, is an Associate Professor in the Department of Structural Engineering at the University of São Paulo, Brazil. His research interests include structural mechanics and structural safety.
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Preface xv
Preface to the Second Edition xvii
Preface to the First Edition xviii
Acknowledgements xx
1 Measures of Structural Reliability 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 DeterministicMeasures of Limit State Violation 2
1.2.1 Factor of Safety 2
1.2.2 Load Factor 3
1.2.3 Partial Factor ('Limit State Design') 4
1.2.4 A Deficiency in Some SafetyMeasures: Lack of Invariance 5
1.2.5 Invariant SafetyMeasures 8
1.3 A Partial Probabilistic SafetyMeasure of Limit State Violation--The Return
Period 8
1.4 Probabilistic Measure of Limit State Violation 12
1.4.1 Introduction 12
1.4.2 The Basic Reliability Problem 14
1.4.3 Special Case: Normal Random Variables 17
1.4.4 Safety Factors and Characteristic Values 19
1.4.5 Numerical Integration of the Convolution Integral 23
1.5 Generalized Reliability Problem 24
1.5.1 Basic Variables 24
1.5.2 Generalized Limit State Equations 25
1.5.3 Generalized Reliability Problem Formulation 26
1.5.4 Conditional Reliability Problems* 27
1.6 Conclusion 29
2 Structural Reliability Assessment 31
2.1 Introduction 31
2.2 Uncertainties in Reliability Assessment 33
2.2.1 Identification of Uncertainties 33
2.2.2 Phenomenological Uncertainty 34
2.2.3 Decision Uncertainty 34
2.2.4 Modelling Uncertainty 34
2.2.5 Prediction Uncertainty 35
2.2.6 Physical Uncertainty 36
2.2.7 Statistical Uncertainty 36
2.2.8 Uncertainties Due to Human Factors 37
2.2.8.1 Human Error 37
2.2.8.2 Human Intervention 40
2.2.8.3 Modelling of Human Error and Intervention 43
2.2.8.4 Quality Assurance 44
2.2.8.5 Hazard Management 45
2.3 Integrated Risk Assessment 45
2.3.1 Calculation of the Probability of Failure 45
2.3.2 Analysis and Prediction 47
2.3.3 Comparison to Failure Data 48
2.3.4 Validation--a Philosophical Issue 50
2.3.5 The Tail Sensitivity 'Problem' 50
2.4 Criteria for Risk Acceptability 51
2.4.1 Acceptable Risk Criterion 51
2.4.1.1 Risks in Society 51
2.4.1.2 Acceptable or Tolerable Risk Levels 53
2.4.2 Socio-economic Criterion 54
2.5 Nominal Probability of Failure 56
2.5.1 General 56
2.5.2 Axiomatic Definition 56
2.5.3 Influence of Gross and Other Errors 57
2.5.4 Practical Implications 58
2.5.5 Target Values for Nominal Failure Probability 59
2.6 Hierarchy of Structural ReliabilityMeasures 60
2.7 Conclusion 61
3 Integration and Simulation Methods 63
3.1 Introduction 63
3.2 Direct and Numerical Integration 63
3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation 65
3.3.1 Introduction 65
3.3.2 Generation of Uniformly Distributed Random Numbers 65
3.3.3 Generation of Random Variates 66
3.3.4 Direct Sampling ('Crude' Monte Carlo) 68
3.3.5 Number of Samples Required 69
3.3.6 Variance Reduction 72
3.3.7 Stratified and Latin Hypercube Sampling 73
3.4 Importance Sampling 73
3.4.1 Theory of Importance Sampling 73
3.4.2 Importance Sampling Functions 75
3.4.3 Observations About Importance Sampling Functions 76
