Wall Street Revalued (eBook, PDF) - Smithers, Andrew
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  • Format: PDF


In 2000 one of the world's foremost economists, AndrewSmithers, showed that the US stock market was widely over-priced atits peak and correctly advised investors to sell. He also arguedthat central bankers should adjust their policies not only in lightof expected inflation but also if stock prices reach excessivelevels. At the time, few economists agreed with him, today it ishard to find those who would disagree. In the past central bankers have denied that markets can bevalued and that it did not matter if they fell. These twointellectual mistakes are the fundamentals cause of the…mehr

Produktbeschreibung
In 2000 one of the world's foremost economists, AndrewSmithers, showed that the US stock market was widely over-priced atits peak and correctly advised investors to sell. He also arguedthat central bankers should adjust their policies not only in lightof expected inflation but also if stock prices reach excessivelevels. At the time, few economists agreed with him, today it ishard to find those who would disagree. In the past central bankers have denied that markets can bevalued and that it did not matter if they fell. These twointellectual mistakes are the fundamentals cause of the currentfinancial market crisis. In addition, a lack of understanding byinvestors as to how to value the market has also resulted inwidespread losses. It is clearly of great importance to everyone that neither theselosses nor the current financial chaos should be repeated and thusthat the principle of asset valuation should be widelyunderstood. In this timely and thought-provoking sequel to the hugelysuccessful Valuing Wall Street Andrew Smithers puts forward acoherent and testable economic theory in order to influenceinvestors, pension consultants and central bankers policy decisionsso that thy may prevent history repeating itself. Backed by theoryand substantial evidence Andrew shows that assets can be valued, asfinancial markets are neither perfectly efficient nor absurdcasinos.

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  • Produktdetails
  • Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
  • Seitenzahl: 256
  • Erscheinungstermin: 17.08.2009
  • Englisch
  • ISBN-13: 9780470682692
  • Artikelnr.: 37298746
Autorenporträt
Andrew Smithers is the founder of Smithers & Co., whichprovides economics-based asset allocation advice to over 100 fundmanagement companies worldwide. Andrew is a regularcontributor in Japan to the Nikkei Veritas. He was a regularcontributor to the London Evening Standard and Japan's Sentakumagazine, and has written for many other newspapers and magazines,including the Financial Times, Forbes (US), SundayTelegraph (UK), Independent on Sunday (UK) andGenron (Japan). Andrew is an invited contributor tothe prestigious Economist's Forum on the FT website. Andrew is a member of the Advisory Board for the Centre forInternational Macroeconomics and Finance (CIMF) at Cambridge andhas also been a member of the Investment Committee at ClareCollege, Cambridge since 1998. Prior to starting his own firm, Andrew was at S.G.Warburg & Co.Ltd. from 1962 to 1989 where he ran the investment managementbusiness for some years and which, by the end of his tenure, wasthe acknowledged market leader. This was subsequently floated offas a separate company, Mercury Asset Management, which was acquiredby Merrill Lynch in 1998.
Inhaltsangabe
Foreword. Chapter 1 Introduction. Chapter 2 Synopsis. Chapter 3 Interest Rate Levels and the Stock Market. Chapter 4 Interest Rate Changes and Share Price Changes. Chapter 5 Household Savings and the Stock Market. Chapter 6 A Moderately rather than a Perfectly Efficient Market. Chapter 7 The Efficient Market Hypothesis. Chapter 8 Testing the Imperfectly Efficient Market Hypothesis. Chapter 9 Other Claims for Valuing Equities. Chapter 10 Forecasting Returns without Using Value. Chapter 11 Valuing Stock Markets by Hindsight Combined with Subsequent Returns. Chapter 12 House Prices. Chapter 13 The Price of Liquidity
The Return for Holding Illiquid Assets. Chapter 14 The Return on Equities and the Return on Equity Portfolios. Chapter 15 The General Undesirability of Leveraging Equity Portfolios. Chapter 16 A Rare Exception to the Rule against Leverage. Chapter 17 Profits are Overstated. Chapter 18 Intangibles. Chapter 19 Accounting Issues. Chapter 20 The Impact on q. Chapter 21 Problems with Valuing the Markets of Developing Economies. Chapter 22 Central Banks' Response to Asset Prices. Chapter 23 The Response to Asset Prices from Investors, Fund Managers and Pension Consultants. Chapter 24 International Imbalances. Chapter 25 Summing Up. Appendix 1 Sources and Obligations. Appendix 2 Glossary of Terms. Appendix 3 Interest Rates, Profits and Share Prices by James Mitchell. Appendix 4 Examples of the Current (Trailing) and Next Year's (Prospective) PEs Giving Misleading Guides to Value. Appendix 5 Real Returns from Equity Markets Comparing 1899
1954 with 1954
2008. Appendix 6 Errors in Inflation Expectations and the Impact on Bond Returns by Stephen Wright and Andrew Smithers. Appendix 7 An Algebraic Demonstration that Negative Serial Correlation can make the Leverage of an Equity Portfolio Unattractive. Appendix 8 Correlations between International Stock Markets. Bibliography. Index.
Rezensionen
"...an economist with a good record in identifying bubbles...provides evidence" (Financial Times, August 5th 2009)

"Mr Smithers makes his case convincingly, dismissing alternative indicators of valuation, such as the dividend yield, along the way" (The Economist, August 14th 2009)

'...an interesting book with many challengers to conventional thought.' (TheActuary.org.uk, June 2010)