Preface. PART ONE: The Context. 1. 1965 to 1990: Five Discoveries at Shell. 2. Introduction to Scenario based Planning. 3. Three Competing Paradigms in Strategic Management. PART TWO: The Principles of Scenario based Planning. 4. Strategising. 5. The Business Idea of an Organisation. 6. The Uncertain Environment. 7. Scenario Analysis. 8. Scenarios and the Strategic Conversation. PART THREE: The Practice of Scenario based planning. 9. The Practitioner s Art. 10. Articulation of the Business Idea. 11. Competitive Positioning. 12. Scenario Development. 13. Option Planning. PART FOUR: Institutionalising Scenario based planning. 14. The Management of Change. 15. Planning Process. 16. Guiding the Strategic Conversation. Conclusion. References. Index.