Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones (eBook, PDF)

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This theses is presented in two parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. Special attention was paid to the considerable sensitivity of parameters. One major finding was that changes over time were relatively insensitive. This new approach will improve a...

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