Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks (eBook, PDF)
Craig E. Taylor
eBook, PDF

Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks (eBook, PDF)

The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management

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This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm shift" that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. "Robust simulation" is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemma...

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