Selective Recruitment
Road Traffic Safety
Herausgegeben: Hiram, Epimetheus Chr.
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Selective recruitment is an observed effect in traffic safety. When safety belt laws are passed, belt wearing rates increase, but casualties decline by smaller percentages than estimated in a simple calculation. This is because those converted from non-use to use are not recruited random members of the driving population. Instead, users differ from non-users in many ways that influence safety.Say initial belt use was zero (it never is, but this assumption makes it easy to understand), and after a belt law is passed use rate increases to 50%. As belts reduce driver fatality risk in crashes by 4...
Selective recruitment is an observed effect in traffic safety. When safety belt laws are passed, belt wearing rates increase, but casualties decline by smaller percentages than estimated in a simple calculation. This is because those converted from non-use to use are not recruited random members of the driving population. Instead, users differ from non-users in many ways that influence safety.Say initial belt use was zero (it never is, but this assumption makes it easy to understand), and after a belt law is passed use rate increases to 50%. As belts reduce driver fatality risk in crashes by 42%, a naive calculation would lead one to expect a 21% reduction in fatalities. In fact, a lesser reduction is observed. A somewhat complicated equation (p. 293 of Traffic Safety (book) estimates expected fatality reductions when use rates increase from any initial percent to any new percent. For the case of an increase in belt use from zero to 50%, the calculated reduction in deaths is 16%,well below the 21% estimated from the naive calculation.
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