Predicting Schedule Risk: A Regression Approach
James V. Monaco
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Predicting Schedule Risk: A Regression Approach

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Past research shows that schedule growth within the acquisition community is difficult to predict and often adversely affects the cost and performance characteristics within programs. This study describes the use of a two-step procedure for assessing schedule growth of major defense acquisition programs using historical data. Through the operations of both logistic and multiple regression, we seek to predict if a program will experience schedule growth and, if applicable, determine the amount of growth. Past research on cost growth within the EMD phase of acquisition shows favorable results us...