Forecasting USAF JP-8 Fuel Needs
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In this study, we forecast the USAF's JP-8 consumption and costs for the next five year period. The study shows that JP-8 consumption figures will go on to follow the recent trend via Holt's Linear Method. Also, the study shows that good short-term predictions can be obtained with more simple and easy-to-implement methods, versus complex ones. When we consider long-term forecasts, 5-years in this case, multiple regression outperforms ANN modeling within the specified forecast accuracy measures. Our results indicate that the USAF's JP-8 cost for each of the next 5 years will be somewhere betwee...
In this study, we forecast the USAF's JP-8 consumption and costs for the next five year period. The study shows that JP-8 consumption figures will go on to follow the recent trend via Holt's Linear Method. Also, the study shows that good short-term predictions can be obtained with more simple and easy-to-implement methods, versus complex ones. When we consider long-term forecasts, 5-years in this case, multiple regression outperforms ANN modeling within the specified forecast accuracy measures. Our results indicate that the USAF's JP-8 cost for each of the next 5 years will be somewhere between 6.3 and 7.5 billion dollars.
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