Forecasting Research and Development Program Budgets Using the Weibull Model
Thomas W Brown
Broschiertes Buch

Forecasting Research and Development Program Budgets Using the Weibull Model

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Norden (1970) uses the Rayleigh, which is a degenerative of the Weibull, to model manpower on research and development (RD) programs. Several research efforts extend his work including Lee, Hogue, and Gallagher (1997) who build RD program budgets based on Rayleigh expenditures. We demonstrate the theoretical limitations to the Rayleigh model and present the Weibull model, which mitigates those limitations. Using 102 completed RD defense programs, we develop regression models to predict the requisite shape and scale parameters to forecast Weibull-based budgets. Using the remaining 26 completed ...