Empirical Studies in Consumption, House Prices and the Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts
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The study finds that each of the primary components of wealth has an equal role for consumer´s expenditure. In addition the study finds significant effects from employment and interest rates. The importance of the simulations and their usefulness to Swedish policy makers is discussed. Both ex-post and ex ante forecasts using the model gives reasonable results.In order to facilitate comparisons between Sweden and the UK we model both countries similarly using exogenous variables. The long run income elasticity for Sweden and the UK are both constrained to be equal to one. Tobins´s q Granger c...
The study finds that each of the primary components of wealth has an equal role for consumer´s expenditure. In addition the study finds significant effects from employment and interest rates. The importance of the simulations and their usefulness to Swedish policy makers is discussed. Both ex-post and ex ante forecasts using the model gives reasonable results.In order to facilitate comparisons between Sweden and the UK we model both countries similarly using exogenous variables. The long run income elasticity for Sweden and the UK are both constrained to be equal to one. Tobins´s q Granger causes housing investment.The study evaluates the one-year ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries. RMSE was large 1.9% for growth and 1.6% for inflation. Six (11) OECD and ten (7) institute growth forecasts records were significantly better than both naïve alternatives. There were no significant differences in accuracy betweenforecasts of the OECD and the institutes. Two forecasts were found to be biased and one had auto-correlated errors.
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