Martha Whitesmith
Broschiertes Buch

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method

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Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach Recent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facil...