Business Cycles in the Contemporary World
Description, Causes, Aggregation, and Synchronization
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The book provides a thorough and sophisticated descriptive analysis of business cycles in a historical perspective. The study is based on the latest available time series as well as latest techniques from the frequency domain. A combined univariate and bivariate analysis is conducted on the national as well as supranational (G7- and Euro-Area wide) level. Issues of stability, volatility, and cyclicality are investigated jointly. An extensive analysis of US manufacturing investment series on the fairly disaggregated four-digit level highlights the limits of linear models to capture the sectoral aggregation process. Synchronization is modelled by a mode-locking mechanism of industrial investment cycles induced by informational externalities. The model in its stochastic version is numerically simulated to assess an agreement between model and data.
The realizationoftheresearch project documented in thisstudy wouldnot have been possible without the kind support and help of several people. I want totaketheopportunitytoexpressmygratitudetothem. Myfirstand foremost thanks go to my thesis supervisor Claude Hillinger. He steadily supported my work with a host of ideas,criticism and encouragement. He has been influential and inspiring in his comments and criticism on alllev elsofdevelopment ofthisdissertation. My sincerethanksare dueto Ulrich Woitek,teachingmefromtheverybeginninginprogrammingandlettingme participate from his expert knowledgeintimeseriesanalysis. UlrichWoitek and Michael Reiter kindly provided me with software and encouraged me throughoutthe whole dissertation project with their comments and in dis cussionsduringtheir staysat Munichand via e-mail. Theyhavehelped me totake many hurdles, particularly in the early stages ofthe project. I am indebted tomyco-supervisor Stephan Klasen forhisengagement andopen minded interest in mythesis. To makethe present work more readable,my friendsin the US,JeanCzerlinskyandRadovanVadovic,madegreat efforts to correct language and style. lowe a great debt of gratitude to them. I alsothankReginaRiphahnandBurkhardHeer fortheir encouragement and helpful guidance. Special thanksgo to Barbara Dluhosch, JakobdeHaan,Burkhard Heer andGerhardIlling. Astheirteachingassistanttheyallgavemetheresources andnecessaryscopeofdevelopmentformydissertationprojectinastimulat ingenvironmentattheEconomics DepartmentoftheUniversity ofMunich. Ithank BeatriceDumpertand BrigitteGebhardfor their maternal motiva tional support and help in administrative matters. Finally, I am indebted to MaximilianFreier for hisreliablesupportand forcross-readingnumerous preliminarydraftsofthethesis. I gratefully acknowledge the Bavarian Young Scientists Grant (Pro motionsstipendium nach dem Gesetz zur Forderung des bayerischen wis senschaftlichen Nachwuchses) for financial support during the first years of my dissertation project. Munich,August 2002 BerndSilssmutli Contents 1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1. 1 BusinessCycle Research:21st CenturyPerspective 1 1. 1. 1 TheClassicView. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. 1. 2 From CBC toRBC School. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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