A Resurgent Russia in 2030? a Study of the Past, Present, and Possible Future Political Situation with the Russian Federation
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Mark Twain once said, "The art of prophecy is very difficult - especially with respect to the future." It can be argued that trying to predict ANYTHING in 2030 is all but impossible. One hundred years ago, attempting to predict 23 years into the future was difficult. Today, as the world flattens, as technology and information continue to spread, the rate of change of any given scenario will accelerate and make extrapolation or correlation extremely difficult. Leading indicators may show trend data, but at an accelerated rate of decaying accuracy. Thus, confirming or denouncing a present strate...
Mark Twain once said, "The art of prophecy is very difficult - especially with respect to the future." It can be argued that trying to predict ANYTHING in 2030 is all but impossible. One hundred years ago, attempting to predict 23 years into the future was difficult. Today, as the world flattens, as technology and information continue to spread, the rate of change of any given scenario will accelerate and make extrapolation or correlation extremely difficult. Leading indicators may show trend data, but at an accelerated rate of decaying accuracy. Thus, confirming or denouncing a present strategic plan will require speed, agility, and adaptability. Even the best holistic approaches are not likely to produce significant accuracy beyond a few years. Thus, the United States must be ready to compete with all comers using all aspects of state power over a wide range of possible scenarios. In the future, the greater challenges facing the US could be a non-kinetic information operation based in cyberspace or an all out conventional war against a peer competitor. The future success of the United States rests in our ability to plan for a future difficult to predict, but must be prepared for nonetheless. It is within this framework that a plausible explanation for a resurgent Russia in 2030 will be developed. The US must be ready for the challenge and the USAF must shape its forces to meet such a threat. This will require a Grand Strategy that incorporates all aspects of national power: diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME). Within the broader context of the Blue Horizons project, each of these aspects will be discussed in detail. However, within this paper, only the political situation in Russia will be examined. This paper will provide an in-depth analysis of the current political situation, develop plausible trend lines affecting the political future, and meld them into one credible scenario which results in a resurgent Russia in 2030.
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