A Bayesian Vector Autoregresive Model of the U.S. Dairy Industry
Krassimir Petrov
Broschiertes Buch

A Bayesian Vector Autoregresive Model of the U.S. Dairy Industry

A Price Forecasting Model

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This work develops a structural Bayesian Vector Autoregressive price forecasting model of the U.S. dairy industry based on monthly price, production, and inventory data. It also provides a relatively simple and clear understanding of the quantitative relationships between the prices of milk, cheese, butter, non-fat dry milk, whey, and dry buttermilk. The Bayesian feature allows for more efficient use of prior information, improves handling of seasonality, and solves the degree-of-freedom problem inherent in vector autoregressions. As current production and inventory data affect future prices w...