Sahra Wagenknecht

The Limits of Choice

Saving Decisions and Basic Needs in Developed Countries

• Broschiertes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

Wann und warum sparen private Haushalte? Sahra Wagenknecht untersucht in ihrer Dissertation den Zusammenhang von Sparentscheidungen und Grundbedürfnissen in Deutschland und den USA von den 1950er-Jahren bis heute. Ihre zentrale Hypothese lautet, dass der Einkommensanteil der Ausgaben zur Befriedigung von Grundbedürfnissen die entscheidende Erklärungsvariable des individuellen Sparverhaltens darstellt. In Abgrenzung zur Lebenszyklus- bzw. Permanenten Einkommenshypothese (LCPIH) kann Wagenknecht zeigen, dass die individuelle Sparquote entscheidend vom langfristigen Einkommen abhängt. Die Arbeit weist für einen Zeitraum von über 50 Jahren nach, dass sich auch auf volkswirtschaftlicher Ebene die Veränderung der privaten Sparquote durch den "necessity share" erklären lässt. Das vorgelegte Modell liefert zudem eine Erklärung, weshalb die private Sparquote bei steigender Einkommensungleichheit in Volkswirtschaften mit dereguliertem Kreditmarkt sinkt, während sie bei restriktiven Kreditmärkten steigt.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Campus Verlag
• Artikelnr. des Verlages: 39916
• Seitenzahl: 327
• Erscheinungstermin: Oktober 2013
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 214mm x 145mm x 20mm
• Gewicht: 416g
• ISBN-13: 9783593399164
• ISBN-10: 3593399164
• Artikelnr.: 38266993

Inhaltsangabe

Contents

List of Figures 11

List of Variables and Abbreviations 13

Introduction 19

Chapter 1. Stylised Facts of Saving

Paragraph 1.1 Data Sets and Statistical Issues 33 1.1.1 Various Saving Aggregates and Their Relationship 33 1.1.2 Macroeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 34 1.1.3 Measurement Problems - Saving Offshore or Saving Out of Realised Capital Gains 36 1.1.4 Statistical Revisions 37 1.1.5 Microeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 38

Paragraph 1.2 The Historic Path of Saving 40 1.2.1 General Trends in the OECD 40 1.2.2 Saving in the U.S. and its Various Components 40 1.2.3 Saving in Germany and its Various Components 44

Paragraph 1.3 Stylised Facts at the Macroeconomic Level 47 1.3.1 Real Income 47 1.3.2 Growth 49 1.3.3 Real Interest Rates 51 1.3.4 Inflation 52 1.3.5 Unemployment and Social Security Standards 54 1.3.6 Demographics 55 1.3.7 Inequality 55 1.3.8 Institutional Environment 58 1.3.9 Persistency 59

Paragraph 1.4 Stylised Facts at the Microeconomic Level 60 1.4.1 Macroeconomic Facts and Microeconomic Distributions 60 1.4.2 Saving Rates in Cross-Section 61 1.4.3 Current Income, Real and Relative 64 1.4.4 Permanent Income 72 1.4.5 The Distribution of Financial Wealth 74 1.4.6 Growth, Income Fluctuations and the Role of Expectations 79 1.4.7 Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving 83 1.4.8 Life-Cycle Patterns of Saving 85 1.4.9 Saving Motives 87

Paragraph 1.5 Summary: Stylised Facts of Saving 89

Chapter 2. Do Standard Models of Saving Match the Facts?

Paragraph 2.1 The Standard LCPIH 93 2.1.1 Basic Ideas of the Standard Approach 93 2.1.2 The Modigliani-Diagram 94 2.1.3 The Perfect Foresight Model in Discrete Time 97 2.1.4 The Perfect Foresight Model in Continuous Time 101 2.1.5 The Certainty Equivalent Model 104

Paragraph 2.2 The Empirical Failure of the Standard Models 108 2.2.1 Excess Sensitivity and Excess Smoothness - Ambiguous Results 108 2.2.2 MPC and Income Growth - Wrong Predictions 109 2.2.3 Incapability to Explain Saving Rate Differentials 110

Paragraph 2.3 Refinements: Allowing for Precautionary Saving, Liquidity Constraints and Habit Formation 112 2.3.1 Convex Marginal Utility and the Precautionary Motive 112 2.3.2 The Technique of Stochastic Dynamic Programming 113 2.3.3 The Buffer-Stock Model 116 2.3.4 Liquidity Constrained Consumers 120 2.3.5 Models Including Habit Formation 121

Paragraph 2.4 Do the Elaborated Models Perform Better? 125 2.4.1 Gain in Realism at the Cost of Predictive Power 125 2.4.2 Remaining Deficiencies 126

Paragraph 2.5 The Optimal Consumption Path - General Remarks 128 2.5.1 Hidden Assumptions and Fundamental Flaws 128 2.5.2 Arguments of the Utility Function - Wealth as an End in Itself 129 2.5.3 A Realistic Time-Horizon 131 2.5.4 The Representative Consumer 132 2.5.5 Per-period Consumption as a Single Entity 138 2.5.6 The Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution 141 2.5.7 The Optimising Procedure - Benefits and Costs 145

Chapter 3. A New Approach to Saving Behaviour

Paragraph 3.1 Basic Needs and Saving 151 3.1.1 The Relative-Income Hypothesis 151 3.1.2 Subsistence Consumption in Developing Countries 152 3.1.3 Necessities in Developed Countries 156

Paragraph 3.2. Basic Needs in Standard Models 159 3.2.1 Introducing Good-specific Subsistence Points into a Standard Dixit-Stiglitz framework 159 3.2.2 Intertemporal Optimisation with Moving Subsistence Consumption 171

Paragraph 3.3 Modelling Saving Decisions by a Simple Rule of Thumb 178 3.3.1 The Necessity Share in Outlay and in Income 180 3.3.2 Determinants of Saving under the Proposed Rule of Thumb 181 3.3.3 The Aggregated Saving Rate under the Given Rule of Thumb 184 3.3.4 Factors Influencing the Propensity to Save and to Dissave 191 3.3.5 Summary: Model Predictions 192

Chapter 4. The Patterns of Consumption Shares

Paragraph 4.1 How to Identify Basic Needs? 197 4.1.1 Two Approaches to the Historic Path of the Necessity Share 197 4.1.2 Basic Expenditure Groups versus Luxury Spending 200

Paragraph 4.2 Consumption Patterns at the Macroeconomic Level 203 4.2.1 Consumption Shares and Sectoral Prices in Germany 203 4.2.2 Consumption Shares and Sectoral Prices in the U.S. 206

Paragraph 4.3 Consumption Patterns at the Microeconomic Level 210 4.3.1 Methodological Notes 210 4.3.2 Food 211 4.3.3 Shelter 213 4.3.4 Clothing 214 4.3.5 Transportation 215 4.3.6 Communication 217 4.3.7 Furniture and Household Devices 217 4.3.8 Health Care 218 4.3.9 Entertainment and Recreation 219 4.3.10 Education 219 4.3.11 Restaurants and Hotels 220

Paragraph 4.4 Summary: The Historic Path of the Necessity Share 221 4.4.1 What Belongs in the Necessity Basket? 221 4.4.2 First Approach to the Necessity Share 222 4.4.3 Second Approach to the Necessity Share 224 4.4.4 The Individual Necessity Share 229

Chapter 5. Does Our Model Match the Facts?

Paragraph 5.1 Model Predictions and the Stylised Facts of Saving 235

Paragraph 5.2 Model Predictions and Empirical Evidence at the Microeconomic Level 238 5.2.1 The Necessity Share and German Saving Rates 238 5.2.2 Reproducing U.S. Saving Rates of the Mid-20th Century 250

Paragraph 5.3 Model Predictions and Empirical Evidence at the Macroeconomic Level 256 5.3.1 Preliminary Notes 256 5.3.2 Saving Rate and Basic Needs in Germany 257 5.3.3 Saving Rate and Basic Needs in the U.S. 262 5.3.4 Is Our Model Able to Reproduce the Historic Path? 266

Summary 303

References 309

Contents

List of Figures 11

List of Variables and Abbreviations 13

Introduction 19

Chapter 1. Stylised Facts of Saving

Paragraph 1.1 Data Sets and Statistical Issues 33
1.1.1 Various Saving Aggregates and Their Relationship 33
1.1.2 Macroeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 34
1.1.3 Measurement Problems - Saving Offshore or Saving Out of Realised Capital Gains 361.1.4 Statistical Revisions 37
1.1.5 Microeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 38

Paragraph 1.2 The Historic Path of Saving 40
1.2.1 General Trends in the OECD 40
1.2.2 Saving in the U.S. and its Various Components 40
1.2.3 Saving in Germany and its Various Components 44

Paragraph 1.3 Stylised Facts at the Macroeconomic Level 47
1.3.1 Real Income 47
1.3.2 Growth 49
1.3.3 Real Interest Rates 51
1.3.4 Inflation 52
1.3.5 Unemployment and Social Security Standards 54
1.3.6 Demographics 55
1.3.7 Inequality 55
1.3.8 Institutional Environment 58
1.3.9 Persistency 59

Paragraph 1.4 Stylised Facts at the Microeconomic Level 60
1.4.1 Macroeconomic Facts and Microeconomic Distributions 60
1.4.2 Saving Rates in Cross-Section 61
1.4.3 Current Income, Real and Relative 64
1.4.4 Permanent Income 72
1.4.5 The Distribution of Financial Wealth 74
1.4.6 Growth, Income Fluctuations and the Role of Expectations 79
1.4.7 Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving 83
1.4.8 Life-Cycle Patterns of Saving 85
1.4.9 Saving Motives 87

Paragraph 1.5 Summary: Stylised Facts of Saving 89

Chapter 2. Do Standard Models of Saving Match the Facts?

Paragraph 2.1 The Standard LCPIH 93
2.1.1 Basic Ideas of the Standard Approach 93
2.1.2 The Modigliani-Diagram 94
2.1.3 The Perfect Foresight Model in Discrete Time 97
2.1.4 The Perfect Foresight Model in Continuous Time 101
2.1.5 The Certainty Equivalent Model 104

Paragraph 2.2 The Empirical Failure of the Standard Models 108
2.2.1 Excess Sensitivity and Excess Smoothness - Ambiguous Results 108
2.2.2 MPC and Income Growth - Wrong Predictions 109
2.2.3 Incapability to Explain Saving Rate Differentials 110

Paragraph 2.3 Refinements: Allowing for Precautionary Saving, Liquidity Constraints and Habit Formation 112
2.3.1 Convex Marginal Utility and the Precautionary Motive 112
2.3.2 The Technique of Stochastic Dynamic Programming 113
2.3.3 The Buffer-Stock Model 116
2.3.4 Liquidity Constrained Consumers 120
2.3.5 Models Including Habit Formation 121

Paragraph 2.4 Do the Elaborated Models Perform Better? 125
2.4.1 Gain in Realism at the Cost of Predictive Power 125
2.4.2 Remaining Deficiencies 126

Paragraph 2.5 The Optimal Consumption Path - General Remarks 128
2.5.1 Hidden Assumptions and Fundamental Flaws 128
2.5.2 Arguments of the Utility Function - Wealth as an End in Itself 129
2.5.3 A Realistic Time-Horizon 131
2.5.4 The Representative Consumer 132
2.5.5 Per-period Consumption as a Single Entity 138
2.5.6 The Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution 141
2.5.7 The Optimising Procedure - Benefits and Costs 145

Chapter 3. A New Approach to Saving Behaviour

Paragraph 3.1 Basic Needs and Saving 151
3.1.1 The Relative-Income Hypothesis 151
3.1.2 Subsistence Consumption in Developing Countries 152
3.1.3 Necessities in Developed Countries 156

Paragraph 3.2. Basic Needs in Standard Models 159
3.2.1 Introducing Good-specific Subsistence Points into a Standard Dixit-Stiglitz framework 159
3.2.2 Intertemporal Optimisation with Moving Subsistence Consumption 171

Paragraph 3.3 Modelling Saving Decisions by a Simple Rule of Thumb 178
3.3.1 The Necessity Share in Outlay and in Income 180
3.3.2 Determinants of Saving under the Proposed Rule of Thumb 181
3.3.3 The Aggregated Saving Rate under the Given Rule of Thumb 184
3.3.4 Factors Influencing the Propensity to Save and to Dissave 191
3.3.5 Summary: Model Predictions 192

Chapter 4. The Patterns of Consumption Shares

Paragraph 4.1 How to Identify Basic Needs? 197
4.1.1 Two Approaches to the His

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Contents List of Figures 11 List of Variables and Abbreviations 13 Introduction 19 Chapter 1. Stylised Facts of Saving Paragraph 1.1 Data Sets and Statistical Issues 33 1.1.1 Various Saving Aggregates and Their Relationship 33 1.1.2 Macroeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 34 1.1.3 Measurement Problems - Saving Offshore or Saving Out of Realised Capital Gains 36 1.1.4 Statistical Revisions 37 1.1.5 Microeconomic Data Sources for the U.S. and Germany 38 Paragraph 1.2 The Historic Path of Saving 40 1.2.1 General Trends in the OECD 40 1.2.2 Saving in the U.S. and its Various Components 40 1.2.3 Saving in Germany and its Various Components 44 Paragraph 1.3 Stylised Facts at the Macroeconomic Level 47 1.3.1 Real Income 47 1.3.2 Growth 49 1.3.3 Real Interest Rates 51 1.3.4 Inflation 52 1.3.5 Unemployment and Social Security Standards 54 1.3.6 Demographics 55 1.3.7 Inequality 55 1.3.8 Institutional Environment 58 1.3.9 Persistency 59 Paragraph 1.4 Stylised Facts at the Microeconomic Level 60 1.4.1 Macroeconomic Facts and Microeconomic Distributions 60 1.4.2 Saving Rates in Cross-Section 61 1.4.3 Current Income, Real and Relative 64 1.4.4 Permanent Income 72 1.4.5 The Distribution of Financial Wealth 74 1.4.6 Growth, Income Fluctuations and the Role of Expectations 79 1.4.7 Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving 83 1.4.8 Life-Cycle Patterns of Saving 85 1.4.9 Saving Motives 87 Paragraph 1.5 Summary: Stylised Facts of Saving 89 Chapter 2. Do Standard Models of Saving Match the Facts? Paragraph 2.1 The Standard LCPIH 93 2.1.1 Basic Ideas of the Standard Approach 93 2.1.2 The Modigliani-Diagram 94 2.1.3 The Perfect Foresight Model in Discrete Time 97 2.1.4 The Perfect Foresight Model in Continuous Time 101 2.1.5 The Certainty Equivalent Model 104 Paragraph 2.2 The Empirical Failure of the Standard Models 108 2.2.1 Excess Sensitivity and Excess Smoothness - Ambiguous Results 108 2.2.2 MPC and Income Growth - Wrong Predictions 109 2.2.3 Incapability to Explain Saving Rate Differentials 110 Paragraph 2.3 Refinements: Allowing for Precautionary Saving, Liquidity Constraints and Habit Formation 112 2.3.1 Convex Marginal Utility and the Precautionary Motive 112 2.3.2 The Technique of Stochastic Dynamic Programming 113 2.3.3 The Buffer-Stock Model 116 2.3.4 Liquidity Constrained Consumers 120 2.3.5 Models Including Habit Formation 121 Paragraph 2.4 Do the Elaborated Models Perform Better? 125 2.4.1 Gain in Realism at the Cost of Predictive Power 125 2.4.2 Remaining Deficiencies 126 Paragraph 2.5 The Optimal Consumption Path - General Remarks 128 2.5.1 Hidden Assumptions and Fundamental Flaws 128 2.5.2 Arguments of the Utility Function - Wealth as an End in Itself 129 2.5.3 A Realistic Time-Horizon 131 2.5.4 The Representative Consumer 132 2.5.5 Per-period Consumption as a Single Entity 138 2.5.6 The Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution 141 2.5.7 The Optimising Procedure - Benefits and Costs 145 Chapter 3. A New Approach to Saving Behaviour Paragraph 3.1 Basic Needs and Saving 151 3.1.1 The Relative-Income Hypothesis 151 3.1.2 Subsistence Consumption in Developing Countries 152 3.1.3 Necessities in Developed Countries 156 Paragraph 3.2. Basic Needs in Standard Models 159 3.2.1 Introducing Good-specific Subsistence Points into a Standard Dixit-Stiglitz framework 159 3.2.2 Intertemporal Optimisation with Moving Subsistence Consumption 171 Paragraph 3.3 Modelling Saving Decisions by a Simple Rule of Thumb 178 3.3.1 The Necessity Share in Outlay and in Income 180 3.3.2 Determinants of Saving under the Proposed Rule of Thumb 181 3.3.3 The Aggregated Saving Rate under the Given Rule of Thumb 184 3.3.4 Factors Influencing the Propensity to Save and to Dissave 191 3.3.5 Summary: Model Predictions 192 Chapter 4. The Patterns of Consumption Shares Paragraph 4.1 How to Identify Basic Needs? 197 4.1.1 Two Approaches to the Historic Path of the Necessity Share 197 4.1.2 Basic Expenditure Groups versus Luxury Spending 200 Paragraph 4.

Rezensionen

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Frau Doktor Wagenknecht
Die linke Politikerin hat eine Dissertation über das Sparen geschrieben

VON WINAND VON PETERSDORFF

Endlich mal eine Politikerin, die einen Doktortitel gewinnt, statt ihn zu verlieren: Die stellvertretende Vorsitzenden der Partei "Die Linke", Sahra Wagenknecht, hat im Oktober 2012 ihre Dissertation in Volkswirtschaft an der Technischen Universität Chemnitz verteidigt und ein "magna cum laude" eingeheimst. Im Zentrum der Studie, die Amerika und Deutschland vergleicht, steht: Warum und wann sparen Privatleute? Wagenknecht attackiert die klassischen Konsumfunktionen, nach denen die Leute ihr Kauf- und Sparverhalten an Erwartungen über das künftige Einkommen orientieren. Wagenknecht glaubt, belegen zu können, dass die Leute einfacher gestrickt sind. Sie sparen, was sie übrig haben. Das Sparverhalten sei eben nicht unabhängig vom aktuellen Einkommen. Die Arbeit ist für Feinschmecker, die mathematische Formeln und die englische Sparche nicht schrecken.

Sahra Wagenknecht: The Limits of Choice. Campus 39,90 Euro

Alle Rechte vorbehalten. © F.A.Z. GmbH, Frankfurt am Main

"Die Arbeit ist für Feinschmecker, die mathematische Formeln und die englische Sprache nicht schrecken.", Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, 06.10.2013