Jack D. Schwager

A Complete Guide to the Futures Market

Technical Analysis, Trading Systems, Fundamental Analysis, Options, Spreads, and Trading Principles

• Broschiertes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

For Amazon customers: The new version of the book, printed on higher quality paper, is now available to purchase. The essential futures market reference guide A Complete Guide to the Futures Market is the comprehensive resource for futures traders and analysts. Spanning everything from technical analysis, trading systems, and fundamental analysis to options, spreads, and practical trading principles, A Complete Guide is required reading for any trader or investor who wants to successfully navigate the futures market. Clear, concise, and to the point, this fully revised and updated second edition provides a solid foundation in futures market basics, details key analysis and forecasting techniques, explores advanced trading concepts, and illustrates the practical application of these ideas with hundreds of market examples. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market: * Details different trading and analytical approaches, including chart analysis, technical indicators and trading systems, regression analysis, and fundamental market models. * Separates misleading market myths from reality. * Gives step-by-step instruction for developing and testing original trading ideas and systems. * Illustrates a wide range of option strategies, and explains the trading implications of each. * Details a wealth of practical trading guidelines and market insights from a recognized trading authority. Trading futures without a firm grasp of this market's realities and nuances is a recipe for losing money. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market offers serious traders and investors the tools to keep themselves on the right side of the ledger.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: John Wiley & Sons / John Wiley & Sons Inc
• Seitenzahl: 720
• Erscheinungstermin: 7. April 2017
• Abmessung: 233mm x 184mm x 48mm
• Gewicht: 1183g
• ISBN-13: 9781118853757
• ISBN-10: 111885375X
• Artikelnr.: 39878082

Autorenporträt

JACK D. SCHWAGER is a co-founder of FundSeeder, a web-based technology and investment business designed to connect undiscovered trading talent with sources of investment capital. He is the author of numerous acclaimed financial books, including the Market Wizards series and Market Sense and Nonsense. MARK ETZKORN is founder of FinCom Media. He was formerly Editor-in-Chief of Active Trader magazine, editor at Futures magazine, and a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He has authored, edited, and contributed to more than 10 books on the financial markets.

Inhaltsangabe

About the Authors xv Part I Preliminaries Chapter 1 For Beginners Only 3
Purpose of This Chapter 3 The Nature of Futures Markets 3 Delivery 4
Contract Specifications 5 Volume and Open Interest 9 Hedging 11 Trading 15
Types of Orders 16 Commissions and Margins 19 Tax Considerations 19 Chapter
2 The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate 21 Part II Chart
Analysis and Technical Indicators Chapter 3 Charts: Forecasting Tool or
Folklore? 27 Chapter 4 Types of Charts 35 Bar Charts 35 Linked Contract
Series: Nearest Futures versus Continuous Futures 39 Close-Only ("Line")
Charts 40 Point-and-Figure Charts 42 Candlestick Charts 43 Chapter 5
Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis: Nearest versus Continuous
Futures 45 The Necessity of Linked-Contract Charts 45 Methods of Creating
Linked-Contract Charts 46 Nearest versus Continuous Futures in Chart
Analysis 48 Conclusion 51 Chapter 6 Trends 57 Defining Trends by Highs and
Lows 57 TD Lines 66 Internal Trend Lines 73 Moving Averages 78 Chapter 7
Trading Ranges 83 Trading Ranges: Trading Considerations 83 Trading Range
Breakouts 86 Chapter 8 Support and Resistance 91 Nearest Futures or
Continuous Futures? 91 Trading Ranges 92 Prior Major Highs and Lows 94
Concentrations of Relative Highs and Relative Lows 101 Trend Lines,
Channels, and Internal Trend Lines 106 Price Envelope Bands 107 Chapter 9
Chart Patterns 109 One-Day Patterns 109 Continuation Patterns 122 Top and
Bottom Formations 134 Chapter 10 Is Chart Analysis Still Valid? 149 Chapter
11 Technical Indicators 155 What Is an Indicator? 155 The Basic Indicator
Calculations 157 Comparing Indicators 157 Moving Average Types 165
Oscillators and Trading Signals 167 Indicator Myths 170 Indicator "Types"
172 Conclusion 173 Part III Applying Chart Analysis to Trading Chapter 12
Midtrend Entry and Pyramiding 177 Chapter 13 Choosing Stop-Loss Points 183
Chapter 14 Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria 189
Chart-Based Objectives 189 Measured Move 190 Rule of Seven 194 Support and
Resistance Levels 196 Overbought/Oversold Indicators 198 DeMark Sequential
199 Contrary Opinion 203 Trailing Stops 204 Change of Market Opinion 204
Chapter 15 The Most Important Rule in Chart Analysis 205 Failed Signals 205
Bull and Bear Traps 205 False Trend Line Breakouts 211 Return to Spike
Extremes 213 Return to Wide-Ranging Day Extremes 216 Counter-to-Anticipated
Breakout of Flag or Pennant 219 Opposite Direction Breakout of Flag or
Pennant Following a Normal Breakout 222 Penetration of Top and Bottom
Formations 225 Breaking of Curvature 229 The Future Reliability of Failed
Signals 229 Conclusion 231 Part IV Trading Systems and Performance
Measurement Chapter 16 Technical Trading Systems: Structure and Design 235
The Benefits of a Mechanical Trading System 236 Three Basic Types of
Systems 236 Trend-Following Systems 237 Ten Common Problems with Standard
Trend-Following Systems 244 Possible Modifications for Basic
Trend-Following Systems 247 Countertrend Systems 254 Diversification 256
Ten Common Problems with Trend-Following Systems Revisited 259 Chapter 17
Examples of Original Trading Systems 261 Wide-Ranging-Day System 261
Run-Day Breakout System 268 Run-Day Consecutive Count System 273 Conclusion
278 Chapter 18 Selecting the Best Futures Price Series for System Testing
279 Actual Contract Series 279 Nearest Futures 280 Constant-Forward
("Perpetual") Series 281 Continuous (Spread-Adjusted) Price Series 282
Comparing the Series 285 Conclusion 287 Chapter 19 Testing and Optimizing
Trading Systems 289 The Well-Chosen Example 289 Basic Concepts and
Definitions 291 Choosing the Price Series 293 Choosing the Time Period 293
Realistic Assumptions 295 Optimizing Systems 297 The Optimization Myth 298
Testing versus Fitting 310 The Truth about Simulated Results 312
Multimarket System Testing 313 Negative Results 314 Ten Steps in
Constructing and Testing a Trading System 315 Observations about Trading
Systems 316 Chapter 20 How to Evaluate Past Performance 319 Why Return
Alone Is Meaningless 319 Risk-Adjusted Return Measures 323 Visual
Performance Evaluation 335 Investment Insights 343 Part V Fundamental
Analysis Chapter 21 Fourteen Popular Fallacies, or What Not to Do Wrong 347
Five Short Scenes 347 The Fourteen Fallacies 349 Chapter 22 Supply-Demand
Analysis: Basic Economic Theory 359 Supply and Demand Defined 359 The
Problem of Quantifying Demand 362 Understanding the Difference between
Consumption and Demand 363 The Need to Incorporate Demand 366 Possible
Methods for Incorporating Demand 368 Why Traditional Fundamental Analysis
Doesn't Work in the Gold Market 371 Chapter 23 Types of Fundamental
Analysis 373 The "Old Hand" Approach 373 The Balance Table 373 The
Analogous Season Method 374 Regression Analysis 375 Index Models 376
Chapter 24 The Role of Expectations 379 Using Prior-Year Estimates Rather
Than Revised Statistics 379 Adding Expectations as a Variable in the
Price-Forecasting Model 380 The Influence of Expectations on Actual
Statistics 380 Defining New-Crop Expectations 381 Chapter 25 Incorporating
Inflation 383 Chapter 26 Seasonal Analysis 389 The Concept of Seasonal
Trading 389 Cash versus Futures Price Seasonality 389 The Role of
Expectations 390 Is It Real or Is It Probability? 390 Calculating a
Seasonal Index 391 Chapter 27 Analyzing Market Response 403 Evaluating
Market Response for Repetitive Events 403 Chapter 28 Building a Forecasting
Model: A Step-by-Step Approach 413 Chapter 29 Fundamental Analysis and
Trading 417 Fundamental versus Technical Analysis: A Greater Need for
Caution 417 Three Major Pitfalls in Fundamental Analysis 418 Combining
Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and Money Management 426 Why
Bother with Fundamentals? 427 Are Fundamentals Instantaneously Discounted?
428 Fitting the News to Price Moves 431 Fundamental Developments: Long-Term
Implications versus Short-Term Response 432 Summary 435 Part VI Futures
Spreads and Options Chapter 30 The Concepts and Mechanics of Spread Trading
439 Introduction 439 Spreads--Definition and Basic Concepts 440 Why Trade
Spreads? 440 Types of Spreads 441 The General Rule 443 The General
Rule--Applicability and Nonapplicability 443 Spread Rather Than
Outright--An Example 445 The Limited-Risk Spread 446 The Spread
Trade--Analysis and Approach 448 Pitfalls and Points of Caution 449 Chapter
31 Intercommodity Spreads: Determining Contract Ratios 453 Chapter 32
Spread Trading in Stock Index Futures 461 Intramarket Stock Index Spreads
461 Intermarket Stock Index Spreads 462 Chapter 33 Spread Trading in
Currency Futures 471 Intercurrency Spreads 471 Intracurrency Spreads 473
Chapter 34 An Introduction to Options on Futures 477 Preliminaries 477
Factors That Determine Option Premiums 480 Theoretical versus Actual Option
Premiums 483 Delta (the Neutral Hedge Ratio) 484 Chapter 35 Option Trading
Strategies 487 Comparing Trading Strategies 487 Profit/Loss Profiles for
Key Trading Strategies 489 Part VII Practical Trading Guidelines Chapter 36
The Planned Trading Approach 559 Step 1: Define a Trading Philosophy 559
Step 2: Choose Markets to Be Traded 560 Step 3: Specify Risk Control Plan
560 Step 4: Establish a Planning Time Routine 563 Step 5: Maintain a
Trader's Spreadsheet 563 Step 6: Maintain a Trader's Diary 565 Step 7:
Analyze Personal Trading 565 Chapter 37 Seventy-Five Trading Rules and
Market Observations 567 Entering Trades 568 Exiting Trades and Risk Control
(Money Management) 569 Other Risk-Control (Money Management) Rules 570
Holding and Exiting Winning Trades 570 Miscellaneous Principles and Rules
571 Market Patterns 572 Analysis and Review 573 Chapter 38 50 Market Wizard
Lessons 575 Appendix A Introduction to Regression Analysis 589 Basics 589
Meaning of Best Fit 591 A Practical Example 593 Reliability of the
Regression Forecast 593 Appendix B A Review of Elementary Statistics 597
Measures of Dispersion 597 Probability Distributions 599 Reading the Normal
Curve (Z) Table 604 Populations and Samples 606 Estimating the Population
Mean and Standard Deviation from the Sample Statistics 607 Sampling
Distribution 608 Central Limit Theorem 609 Standard Error of the Mean 612
Confidence Intervals 612 The t-Test 614 Appendix C Checking the
Significance of the Regression Equation 619 The Population Regression Line
619 Basic Assumptions of Regression Analysis 620 Testing the Significance
of the Regression Coefficients 620 Standard Error of the Regression 627
Confidence Interval for an Individual Forecast 627 Extrapolation 630
Coefficient of Determination (r2) 630 Spurious ("Nonsense") Correlations
634 Appendix D The Multiple Regression Model 637 Basics of Multiple
Regression 637 Applying the t-Test in the Multiple Regression Model 640
Standard Error of the Regression 641 Confidence Intervals for an Individual
Forecast 642 R2 and Corrected R2 642 F-Test 643 Analyzing a Regression Run
644 Appendix E Analyzing the Regression Equation 649 Outliers 649 The
Residual Plot 650 Autocorrelation Defined 651 The Durbin-Watson Statistic
as a Measure of Autocorrelation 651 The Implications of Autocorrelation 654
Missing Variables and Time Trend 655 Dummy Variables 658 Multicollinearity
663 Addendum: Advanced Topics 666 Appendix F Practical Considerations in
Applying Regression Analysis 673 Determining the Dependent Variable 673
Selecting the Independent Variables 675 Should the Preforecast Period Price
Be Included? 675 Choosing the Length of the Survey Period 676 Sources of
Forecast Error 677 Simulation 678 Stepwise Regression 679 Sample
Step-by-Step Regression Procedure 680 Summary 681 References and
Recommended Readings 683 Index 685