This book is intended as a popular, but abbreviated treatise on probability theory. Basic concepts and techniques are introduced and illustrated mainly by drawing from a wealth of entertaining, paradoxical, and mind-boggling probability problems (such as the birthday problem or the Monty Hall problem). The writing style is purposefully enjoyable and mostly non-technical. The pace is leisurely. No knowledge of calculus of previous knowledge of probability theory or statistics is required. The emphasis is on entertainment and pedagogy rather than applicability or usefulness. Examples reflect everyday occurrences, not pre-fabricated or altered data. While honest in approach, the author takes great pain to ease the level of mathematics throughout the work. Probability theory is learned by and through example.
- Produktdetails
- Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
- Seitenzahl: 278
- Erscheinungstermin: 1. März 2010
- Englisch
- Abmessung: 234mm x 156mm x 15mm
- Gewicht: 427g
- ISBN-13: 9780470624456
- ISBN-10: 0470624450
- Artikelnr.: 29979115
Contents
Preface v
1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1
The Probabilist 1
The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4
The Probabilist's Rule Book 9
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 19
Liar, Liar 25
Car Dealers and Color Blindness 28
Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 33
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 39
The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 44
Final Word 49
2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 51
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 51
Goats and Gloats 56
Happy Birthday 58
Typical Atypicalities 63
The British Snob and I 69
Strategery 72
Final Word 75
3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 77
Probable Improbabilities 77
Saddam and I 81
Taking Tiny Risks 86
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 88
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 90
Clumps in Space 95
Final Word 97
4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue99
Driving Miss Daisy 99
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 102
Bayes and My Green Card 105
Objection Your Honor 110
Ornithology 119
Final Word 122
5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 125
Great Expectations 125
The Price is Right (Maybe) 131
Blood, Sweat, and Theory 135
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 137
Expect the Unexpected 142
Exponential growth toward extinction 146
Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 156
Mean, median, mode 161
Deviant Behavior 167
Final Word 172
6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results173
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 173
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 177
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 183
Let's Get Serious 190
Bells and Bread 194
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 199
Final Word 201
7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You203
French Letters 203
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 207
Craps: Not so Dicey After All 212
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 215
Math for Losers 221
Win Money and Lose Friends 228
Final Word 238
8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 239
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 239
4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 243
Polls Gone Wild 248
The Silver Lining 253
The Lawsuit and the Lurker 257
Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 262
Snooping in the Abbot's Garden 269
Final Word 274
9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 277
Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 277
Random and Not-So-Random Digits 284
Number One Is Number One 285
Is Random Really Random? 288
Final Word 293
Index 295
Preface v
1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1
The Probabilist 1
The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4
The Probabilist's Rule Book 9
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 19
Liar, Liar 25
Car Dealers and Color Blindness 28
Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 33
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 39
The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 44
Final Word 49
2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 51
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 51
Goats and Gloats 56
Happy Birthday 58
Typical Atypicalities 63
The British Snob and I 69
Strategery 72
Final Word 75
3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 77
Probable Improbabilities 77
Saddam and I 81
Taking Tiny Risks 86
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 88
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 90
Clumps in Space 95
Final Word 97
4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue99
Driving Miss Daisy 99
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 102
Bayes and My Green Card 105
Objection Your Honor 110
Ornithology 119
Final Word 122
5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 125
Great Expectations 125
The Price is Right (Maybe) 131
Blood, Sweat, and Theory 135
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 137
Expect the Unexpected 142
Exponential growth toward extinction 146
Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 156
Mean, median, mode 161
Deviant Behavior 167
Final Word 172
6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results173
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 173
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 177
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 183
Let's Get Serious 190
Bells and Bread 194
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 199
Final Word 201
7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You203
French Letters 203
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 207
Craps: Not so Dicey After All 212
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 215
Math for Losers 221
Win Money and Lose Friends 228
Final Word 238
8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 239
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 239
4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 243
Polls Gone Wild 248
The Silver Lining 253
The Lawsuit and the Lurker 257
Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 262
Snooping in the Abbot's Garden 269
Final Word 274
9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 277
Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 277
Random and Not-So-Random Digits 284
Number One Is Number One 285
Is Random Really Random? 288
Final Word 293
Index 295