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Praise for the First Edition "If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations." - Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio's "Math Guy" and author of The Math Gene and The Unfinished Game From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition investigates the often surprising effects of risk and chance in our lives.…mehr
Praise for the First Edition "If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations." - Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio's "Math Guy" and author of The Math Gene and The Unfinished Game From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition investigates the often surprising effects of risk and chance in our lives. Featuring a timely update, the Second Edition continues to be the go-to guidebook for an entertaining presentation on the mathematics of chance and uncertainty. The new edition develops the fundamental mathematics of probability in a unique, clear, and informal way so readers with various levels of experience with probability can understand the little numbers found in everyday life. Illustrating the concepts of probability through relevant and engaging real-world applications, the Second Edition features numerous examples on weather forecasts, DNA evidence, games and gambling, and medical testing. The revised edition also includes: * The application of probability in finance, such as option pricing * The introduction of branching processes and the extinction of family names * An extended discussion on opinion polls and Nate Silver's election predictions Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition is an ideal reference for anyone who would like to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as well as a useful supplementary textbook for students in any course dealing with probability.
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Peter Olofsson, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics at Trinity University, USA. An active researcher in the field of applied probability and an experienced teacher, Dr. Olofsson is the author of Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition, also published by Wiley.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface. 1. Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways. 2. Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles. 3. Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 4. Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue. 5. Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect. 6. Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascination Mathematical Results. 7. Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You. 8. Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians. 9. Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation. Index.
Contents
Preface v
1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1
The Probabilist 1
The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4
The Probabilist's Rule Book 9
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 19
Liar, Liar 25
Car Dealers and Color Blindness 28
Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 33
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 39
The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 44
Final Word 49
2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 51
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 51
Goats and Gloats 56
Happy Birthday 58
Typical Atypicalities 63
The British Snob and I 69
Strategery 72
Final Word 75
3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 77
Probable Improbabilities 77
Saddam and I 81
Taking Tiny Risks 86
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 88
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 90
Clumps in Space 95
Final Word 97
4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue99
Driving Miss Daisy 99
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 102
Bayes and My Green Card 105
Objection Your Honor 110
Ornithology 119
Final Word 122
5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 125
Great Expectations 125
The Price is Right (Maybe) 131
Blood, Sweat, and Theory 135
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 137
Expect the Unexpected 142
Exponential growth toward extinction 146
Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 156
Mean, median, mode 161
Deviant Behavior 167
Final Word 172
6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results173
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 173
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 177
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 183
Let's Get Serious 190
Bells and Bread 194
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 199
Final Word 201
7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You203
French Letters 203
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 207
Craps: Not so Dicey After All 212
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 215
Math for Losers 221
Win Money and Lose Friends 228
Final Word 238
8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 239
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 239
4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 243
Preface. 1. Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways. 2. Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles. 3. Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 4. Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue. 5. Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect. 6. Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascination Mathematical Results. 7. Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You. 8. Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians. 9. Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation. Index.
Contents
Preface v
1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1
The Probabilist 1
The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4
The Probabilist's Rule Book 9
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 19
Liar, Liar 25
Car Dealers and Color Blindness 28
Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 33
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 39
The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 44
Final Word 49
2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 51
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 51
Goats and Gloats 56
Happy Birthday 58
Typical Atypicalities 63
The British Snob and I 69
Strategery 72
Final Word 75
3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 77
Probable Improbabilities 77
Saddam and I 81
Taking Tiny Risks 86
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 88
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 90
Clumps in Space 95
Final Word 97
4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue99
Driving Miss Daisy 99
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 102
Bayes and My Green Card 105
Objection Your Honor 110
Ornithology 119
Final Word 122
5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 125
Great Expectations 125
The Price is Right (Maybe) 131
Blood, Sweat, and Theory 135
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 137
Expect the Unexpected 142
Exponential growth toward extinction 146
Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 156
Mean, median, mode 161
Deviant Behavior 167
Final Word 172
6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results173
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 173
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 177
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 183
Let's Get Serious 190
Bells and Bread 194
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 199
Final Word 201
7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You203
French Letters 203
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 207
Craps: Not so Dicey After All 212
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 215
Math for Losers 221
Win Money and Lose Friends 228
Final Word 238
8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 239
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 239
4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 243
Polls Gone Wild 248
The Silver Lining 253
The Lawsuit and the Lurker 257
Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 262
Snooping in the Abbot's Garden 269
Final Word 274
9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 277
Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 277
Random and Not-So-Random Digits 284
Number One Is Number One 285
Is Random Really Random? 288
Final Word 293
Index 295
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