Early Stage Market Modeling
Using Theoretical Perspectives
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Revision with unchanged content. Estimating the size of addressable markets before they exist or are well established, is one of the major challenges faced by marketing and investment managers. Waiting for maturity and then addressing its needs is not a tactic that many companies are able to accept. The objective of this research is to develop a method that can be used to estimate the size of emerging markets. The adoption of mobile payment services in South America is modeled using a stochastic analysis tool, a staged estimation procedure and historical data. Adoption curves are estimated usi...
Revision with unchanged content. Estimating the size of addressable markets before they exist or are well established, is one of the major challenges faced by marketing and investment managers. Waiting for maturity and then addressing its needs is not a tactic that many companies are able to accept. The objective of this research is to develop a method that can be used to estimate the size of emerging markets. The adoption of mobile payment services in South America is modeled using a stochastic analysis tool, a staged estimation procedure and historical data. Adoption curves are estimated using dimensions traditionally used in marketing literature and construct dimensions that were derived using three complementary theoretical perspectives. The proposed method is first tested using adoption data in regions for which mobile payments exist. The method is then applied to South America, a region in which mobile payments have not been deployed. The analysis and method try to refute the idea that early stage marketing estimation is more of an art than a science by providing a method that yields accurate, quantitative results based on little or no market data. The book is addressed to professionals in Marketing, early market investors and researchers in the areas of Marketing, Innovation and Technology Diffusion.
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