Preface xiii
1 Introduction 1
The Wireless Industry at a Crossroads 1
Be Prepared for 2015 4
Scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015 4
Challenges for the Future 6
Creating Scenarios 6
Guide to the Book 7
Part I Scenarios 9
2 Wireless Explosion-Creative Destruction 11
A Sunny Berlin Day in 2015 14
The Wireless Scene in 2015 16
Rapidly Growing Industry 16
Industry Fragmentation-Market Leaders Losing Hegemony 17
Debt-Burdened Operators Losing Market Dominance 18
Telco Equipment Vendors Lose to Datacom Attackers 19
Terminal Vendors Attacked from NICs and Datacom
Industry Vendors 20
Active Users Driving Development and Undermining Copyright 21
A Mobile Lifestyle with Increasing Travel 22
An Explosion of Services and Applications 22
Spectrum-Abundant Release for Unlicensed Bands 24
No Real Problems with Integrity, Privacy, and Security 24
Fast Development in China and Other NICs 25
Batteries and Complexity Management No Showstoppers 25
Wireless Technology in 2015 26
A World with Many Different Wireless Systems 26
An Abundance of Services with Various QoS 28
Standardization Has Increased 28
3 Slow Motion 29
Ordinary Life in Stockholm and Business Life in Shanghai 32
A Day in the Life of an Ordinary Swede 32
A Business Day of a Mobile Professional in 2015 33
The Wireless Scene in 2015 35
Economic Recession and 3G Fiasco 35
Health Problems from Radiation 36
Security a Problem Still Waiting to Be Solved 37
The Mobile Lifestyle Loses Ground 38
No Service Explosion 39
Wireless Telecommunication Is a Mature Industry 40
The Big NICs Catching up after a Slow Start 42
Spectrum Shortage Not a Big Problem 43
Power Consumption and Complexity Management as Technical Limitations 44
Wireless Technology in 2015 45
Still Mostly Second-Generation Wireless Networks 45
Simple and Low-Radiating Terminals 46
Few and Basic Services 47
4 Rediscovering Harmony 49
A Weekday Morning in a Small Scandinavian Village 52
The Wireless Scene in 2015 54
A Sustainable Society in Balance with Itself 54
The Backlash for Marketing and Commercial Media 56
Market Segments Driving the Development 57
Less but More Travel 59
A Few Clouds in the Sky 60
The Industry Dilemma: Refocus or Die! 60
Peer-to-Peer Applications and Services a Hit 62
Content IPR Still Unresolved 64
Wireless Technology in 2015 64
Many Local and Few Global Wireless Systems 64
Simple Services 65
Standards 65
5 Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments 67
Early April Morning, Green Haven Gated Community, New York, US 70
The Wireless Scene in 2015 73
Moguls and Governments 73
Security Problems of the 2000s Solved 74
Moguls in Control 76
Slow Development in the NICs 77
Incumbent Telecom Players Keep Control of the Market 77
3G According to Plan 80
Applications and Services Focus on Convenience for the User 80
No Free Airwaves 81
Somewhat of a Complex World 81
Wireless Technology in 2015 82
Few Different Systems 82
Global Networks 82
Wireless and Wired Terminals 83
Quality of Service 83
Few Services but Sophisticated and Popular Services 83
Part II Drivers of Development and Technological Implications 85
6 Trends and Fundamental Drivers 87
Fourteen Trends Shaping the Scenarios 88
Scenario Abbreviations 88
Trend 1: Development Will Be More User Driven 88
Trend 2: User Mobility Will Increase 89
Trend 3: The Service and Application Market Will Grow 90
Trend 4: User Security, Integrity, and Privacy Will Become More Important 91
Trend 5: Real or Perceived Health Problems Due to Radiation Will Become More Important 92
Trend 6: Environmental Issues Will Become More Important 93
Trend 7: Spectrum Will Become an Increasingly Scarce Resource 94
Trend 8: The Wireless Industry Will Grow 95
Trend 9: The Big NICs Will Continue Their Positive Development 96
Trend 10: Market Concentration in the Wireless Industry Will Change 96
Trend 11: The Fight for Market Dominance in the Wireless Industry Will Intensify 97
Trend 12: Short Terminal Usage Time and Complexity Management Will Become Increasingly Important Problems 98
Trend 13: 3G Will Be Implemented 99
Trend 14: Protecting IPR on Content Will Become Increasingly Difficult 100
Fundamental Drivers 101
Technology Drivers 101
Socioeconomic and Political Drivers 104
Business and Industry Drivers 105
Users, Values, and Attitude Drivers 107
Theories Supporting Fundamental Drivers 108
Exponential Growth 108
Microprocessor and Other Growth Paths 109
Exponentially Falling Prices and the Experience Curve 110
Network Effects I (Metcalfe's Law) 110
Network Effects II (Reed's Law) 110
The S-curve and the Product Life Cycle 111
Technology and Market Forces Driving Industry Life Cycles 111
Disruptive Innovations 112
Architectural Shifts in IT and Other Industries 113
Empirical Support for Postmaterialistic Value Shift 114
7 Technological Conclusions from Scenarios 117
System Technology in 2015 118
The Wireless Infrastructure Will Be Heterogeneous 118
Efficient and Very High Rate Air Interfaces Will Exist 118
Traffic Will Be IP Based and Networks Will Be Transparent 119
Much of the Access Infrastructure Will Be Ad Hoc Deployed 119
Cost per Transmitted Bit Will Be Very Small 119
No Harmful Radiation from Base Stations 120
Decreased Power Consumption in the Wireless Systems 120
Mobile Terminals in 2015 120
Terminals Will Have a Wide Range of Shapes and Capabilities 120
Wireless Terminals Will Be Cheap, Very Small, and Modularized 121
Usage Time without Charging Batteries Will Be Very Long 121
User Interfaces Will Be Highly Developed and Advanced 121
M2M Will Be Everywhere 122
Wireless Devices Will Be Harmless to People and the Environment 122
Mobile Services in 2015 122
Wireless Services Will Become a Commodity 123
Services Will Be Independent of Infrastructure and Terminals 123
Telepresence and Emotional Communication Will Be Available 123
Content Will Be Personalized According to User Demand and Location 124
Global Roaming and Seamless Services Will Be Possible 124
Broadband Services Will Be Available for All Transportation Systems 124
The End User Will Be Always Best Connected 124
Powerful Computers Will Be Everywhere 125
Very High Levels of Security Will Be Provided 125
Part III Challenges for the Future 127
8 Challenges for Technical Research 129
Low-Cost Infrastructure and Services 129
Seamless Mobility 132
New and Advanced Services 134
Usability and Human-Machine Interface 135
Health and Environment 136
A Need for Cross-Disciplinary Research 137
9 Challenges for the Wireless Industry 139
Introduction 139
The Challenges 139
Threat from Disruptive Market Change 139
Speed up the Process of Spectrum Release 140
3G and the Telco Debt Threat 141
Complexity Management 141
Radiation a Problem, Real or Perceived 142
Better Batteries in Wireless Devices 142
Usability and the User in Focus 142
Cheaper Infrastructure and Viable Business Models 143
A Phone for Everyone 143
All Industries Mature 143
10 Challenges for Key Regions 145
US 146
An Immature Market for Mobile Services Waiting to Catch Up 146
Fragmented Operator Industry Being Consolidated 147
Multiple Cellular Network Standards 148
WLAN: A Market Growing Rapidly 148
Rather Weak Telco Vendor Industry 149
Poor Coverage 150
Lack of Spectrum Leading to Limited Capacity 150
The Threat of Terrorism and Crime 151
Europe 152
The GSM World Leader 152
Problems with Seamless Mobile Access 153
Telecom Debt Crisis 153
Strong in Telecom, Weak in Datacom 154
Health and the Environment Taken Seriously 154
Stagnation and Overregulated Economies 154
China 155
An Opaque and Overregulated Economy 156
Political Instability 156
Risks of Complacency 156
Challenges for the Chinese Wireless Industry 157
Risks and Opportunities with Chinese 3G Standard Wars 158
Japan and South Korea 158
Leading the Way into the Wireless Future 159
Oligopoly in the Operator Industry 160
Multiple Standards for 2.5G and 3G 160
A Slow Start for 3G 161
A Saturated Voice Market 161
3G Terminals Expensive to Subsidize 162
4G Already 162
No Major Infrastructure Vendors from Japan and Korea 162
The Japanese Recession 163
Political Uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula 163
Part IV Moving into the Future with Scenarios 165
11 Scenario Thinking and Scenario Making 167
Logics of Scenario Creation 167
Our Approach: Trends 168
Driving Forces: What Do We Care About? 169
Fundamental Drivers: What Do We Know? 169
Critical Uncertainties: What Do We Not Know? 170
Making Our Scenarios 170
Creating the Scenarios and Key Research Issues 171
Weak Signals and Provocative Questions 172
Information and Feedback 173
Commissioned Studies 174
Other Studies about the Future 174
The PCC Research Program 174
The WWRF Book of Visions 175
Swedish Technology Foresight 176
Beyond Mobile 177
Other Scenarios 177
12 Summary and Concluding Remarks 179
The Book in Brief 179
Wireless Explosion-Creative Destruction 180
Slow Motion 182
Rediscovering Harmony 184
Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments 187
Trends and Fundamental Drivers 189
Technological Conclusions from the Scenarios 191
Challenges for Research, Industry, and Key Regions 192
Moving into the Future 199
Dear Reader in 2015 201
Appendixes 203
Appendix A User Segments 205
Moklofs 205
Yupplots 206
Elders 207
Mobile Professionals 207
Industrial Users 208
Appendix B Wireless Foresight at Wireless@KTH 209
The Wireless Foresight Project 209
Wireless@KTH and the Vision-Driven Research Approach 210
Glossary 211
References 215
Author Biographies 219
Index 221
