Chapter 1 - The Challenge for Coastal Management During the Third Millennium
Summary
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Coastal Management in the Third Millennium: The Need for an Integrated Response
1.3 Conceptualizing and Designing a Coastal Simulator
1.4 Scenarios for Coastal Assessment
1.5 The Study Sites
1.6 Conclusions and Next Steps
Acknowledgements
References
Chapter 2 - Climate Downscaling: Local Mean Sea-Level, Surge and Wave Modelling
Summary
2.1 Introduction
2.2. Regional Scale Variability in Climate and Sea Level
2.3. Storms in the Present and Future Climate
2.4. Model Forcing from Hadley Centre Climate Model
2.5. Surge and Wave Models and the Downscaling Methodology
2.6. Model Results for Future Climate Scenarios
2.7. Conclusions and Next Steps
Acknowledgements
References
Chapter 3 - Broad-Scale Hydrodynamic Simulation, Wave Transformation and Sediment Pathways
Summary
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Methodology for Transferring Waves and Surge Towards the Coastline and Assessing Residual Sediment Transport
3.3 Changes in Inshore Waves Due to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
3.4 Influence of Sea Level Rise on Sediment Pathways
3.5. Conclusions and Next Steps
References
Chapter 4 – Land Use Dynamics and Coastal Management
Summary
4.1. Introduction
4.2.
Modelling Land Use Change in Coastal Areas
4.2.1 Challenges
4.2.2 Spatial Dynamic Modelling: Some Principles
4.2.3 Socio-Economic Storylines
4.3. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with an Algorithm-Based Approach
4.4. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with A Choice-Based Approach
4.5. Conclusions and Next Steps
References
Chapter 5 - Evaluating Broad-Scale Morphological Change in the Coastal Zone Using a Logic Based Behavioural Systems Approach
Summary
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Capturing Current Knowledge and Understanding
1.3 Illustrative Application to the East Anglian Coast, UK
1.4 Benefits of a Qualitative Deductive Assessment
1.5 Conclusions and Next Steps
References
Chapter 6 – Coastal Wetland Habitats: Future Challenges and Potential Solutions
Summary
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The Tyndall Simulator Approach
6.3 Conclusions and Next Steps
References
Chapter 7 – Simulating the Shore and Cliffs of North Norfolk
Summary
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Description of the Coast
7.3 Model Construction
7.4 Future Climate Change and Coastal Management
7.5 Results
7.6 Conclusions and Next Steps
References
Chapter 8 – Broad Scale Coastal Inundation Modelling
Summary
8.1 Intr
oduction
8.2 Approaches to Coastal Inundation Modelling
8.3 Application to North Norfolk
8.4 Conclusions and Next Steps
Acknowledgements
References
Chapter 9 – Broad Scale Flood and Erosion Risk Analysis
Chapter 10 – Visualising Potential Coastal Change: Communicating Results Using Visualisation Techniques
Summary
10.1 Introduction – Challenges Associated with Communicating and Visualising Coastal Change
10.2 The Coastal Simulator – Visualisation Approach(Es)
10.3 Exploring Coastal Futures – Testing the Visualisations in Coastal Decision-Making and Stakeholder Engagement
10.4 Conclusions and Next Steps
References
Chapter 11 – The Coastal Simulator Interface: Integration and Application
Chapter 12 – Many Stakeholders, Multiple Perspectives: Long-Term Planning for a Future Coast
Summary
12.1 Introduction
12.2 The Challenges of a Changeable Coast: North Norfolk, UK
12.3 Stakeholder Engagement in the Development of the Tyndall Coastal Simulator
12.4 Shifting Sands: Lessons Learned for Managing a Changing Coast
12.5 Conclusions and Next Steps
References
Chapter 13 – Living with Uncertainty: Difficult Choices for Coastal Management in the UK During the Third Millennium
Summary
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Re-Visiting the Response to the 1953 Event
13.3 How the Simulator Approach Helps Improve Coastal Management
13.4 The Process of Developing a Coastal Simulator: What Have We Learnt?
13.5 Key Lessons for UK Coastal Management: Transferring the Simulator for Wider Application
13.6 Key Lessons for Researchers and Research Funders to Develop UK Coastal Simulator Capacity
References
Chapter 14 – Generic Lessons for Coastal Management in the Third Millennium
Summary
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Key Threats, Opportunities and Priorities for Adaptation and Development in Coastal Areas in the Next 5 Decades
14.3 Transference of Methods and the Wider Lessons for the International Community
14.4 Coastal Management for the Third Millennium – A Manifesto for Research, Development and Collaboration
References
