An Evaluation of Growth Models as Predictive Tools for Estimates at Completion
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Efficient decision making mandates the accuracy of forecasted estimations of a contract's final value known within Earned Value Management (EVM) as the Estimates at Completion (EAC). Our research evaluates the prospect of nonlinear growth modeling as an alternative to the current predictive tools used for calculating EAC, such as the Cost Performance Index (CPI), the Schedule Cost Index (SCI), and the Composite Index methods. Our study uses the Gompertz growth curve to produce three EAC Models based on contract phase: A Production Model, a Development Model, and a Combined Model.
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